US Professor's "election formula" predicts that Obama will win 2012 easily.

[Curtis2011]

I saw this story today and felt like sharing:
Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

The professor has a 13-step checklist of every "requirement" that he says are necessary to determine who will win an election, based on the events and circumstances surrounding it.

All of the 13 points are laid out in the article, and it is a fairly short and easy read. The guy apparently wrote a book about it which you can find here (not an affiliate link).

The main reason this professor's "formula" is getting media attention: He invented it in 1981, and it has correctly predicted each of the 7 Presidential elections that have occurred since then, giving it a track record of 100% accuracy so far.


Edit: I just read one of the Amazon reviews and the review author said that the book's formula accurately predicts the winners of every Presidential election since 1860, if you were to go back in time and use the equation at every election cycle to predict the winner. I assume the reviewer got this information from the book itself.

[scorpio1980]

I hope this guy is wrong. Not much more to say except vote for Ron Paul!

[Brutha]

: I just read one of the Amazon reviews and the review author said that the book's formula accurately predicts the winners of every Presidential election since 1860, if you were to go back in time and use the equation at every election cycle to predict the winner.

Predicting what already happened in the past isn't difficult. You can switch your model till it predicts everything that happened in the past.

[garentee]

Originally Posted by scorpio1980

I hope this guy is wrong. Not much more to say except vote for Ron Paul!

As much as I dislike most mainstream politicians the problem is not necessarily going to be solved by voting for one particular candidate or the other... In the end Ron Paul while he has some very helpful ideas to make this country a bit saner would end up getting sucked in by the system...It matters not who the president is at this point in time because there is a very different power structure at work then we are led to believe....

[Orecle]

Originally Posted by garentee

As much as I dislike most mainstream politicians the problem is not necessarily going to be solved by voting for one particular candidate or the other... In the end Ron Paul while he has some very helpful ideas to make this country a bit saner would end up getting sucked in by the system...It matters not who the president is at this point in time because there is a very different power structure at work then we are led to believe....

And it amazes me how many people don't recognise this simple truth

[SnerpGoodWord]

I'm not sure what this "formula" is, but the most accurate early predictors of presidential elections are

- consumer sentiment & unemployment
- presidential approval rating
- the generic congressional ballot
- head to head polls of the president vs. leading nominee adjusted for name recognition
- special out-of-cycle elections for congressional seats
- fundraising situation

All six datapoints point to Obama losing although the fundraising situation is less clear than the other five and will remain that way until the republican nominee builds their fundraising apparatus.

[James Fletcher]

It's just too bad the GOP doesn't seem to have anyone matching the Gipper in their bag.

[scorpio1980]

Originally Posted by garentee

As much as I dislike most mainstream politicians the problem is not necessarily going to be solved by voting for one particular candidate or the other... In the end Ron Paul while he has some very helpful ideas to make this country a bit saner would end up getting sucked in by the system...It matters not who the president is at this point in time because there is a very different power structure at work then we are led to believe....

While I do believe like you do that things aren't quite as they seem. I will still vote for the best man for the job which is Ron Paul. Can he solve all our problems in 4 years? No, but he sure as hell can make a positive difference. If he gets the attention that a president gets it may also awaken the sheeple to the real problems that we face.

[garentee]

Originally Posted by scorpio1980

While I do believe like you do that things aren't quite as they seem. I will still vote for the best man for the job which is Ron Paul. Can he solve all our problems in 4 years? No, but he sure as hell can make a positive difference. If he gets the attention that a president gets it may also awaken the sheeple to the real problems that we face.

The key phrase in my statement was actually the one about him getting sucked in by the system...No one is immune to it at this point in time.. Its the system that needs to change.. systemic change is a whole lot harder to achieve then just changing leaders. That would mean that we as voters would have to change as well...and all politicians would have to change, and all the special interest groups would have to lose their power.I believe that most of the problems of the US are actually systemic in nature and require a change of mind set..