"The Great Disruption Has Arrived"

[JSB]

Paul Gilding - Personal website of Paul Gilding The Great Disruption has arrived

The premise: Economic and ecological pressures have finally reached the tipping point, and the age of economic growth is over. Now is the beginning of the crash cycle, and the painful, multi-decade, crisis-driven transformation of society from a growth-based economic model to a steady-state economy.

Expect to lose a billion or two of us along the way.

This is the optimistic version.

What are your thoughts?

[Mariana Trench]

Originally Posted by JSB

Now is the beginning of the crash cycle, and the painful, multi-decade, crisis-driven transformation of society

Wait, wasn't that the last century?

[JSB]

Last century was what he called "The Scream" --- growth to levels beyond sustainability. The disruption is when the effects of this overstressing of systems all comes to a head and accelerates rapidly in a series of positive feedback loops, causing disruption in many areas and on all levels of society and the economy. Think: the heart attack that years of bad health habits have led up to.

Originally Posted by Mariana Trench

Wait, wasn't that the last century?

[Mariana Trench]

Originally Posted by JSB

Last century was what he called "The Scream" --- growth to levels beyond sustainability. The disruption is when the effects of this overstressing of systems all comes to a head and accelerates rapidly in a series of positive feedback loops, causing disruption in many areas and on all levels of society and the economy. Think: the heart attack that years of bad health habits have led up to.

I quoted a very specific part for a reason, and that is to point out that the last century was a painful, multi-decade, crisis driven transformation of society, even if it was economic growth. (I'm thinking particularly about America and Europe, because I'm more familiar with their recent history.)

[Nimue]

Power-driven human history = pain and destruction.
Short breaks of beautiful civilization = more excuses to invade other peoples' way of life.

Good people = often too good to foresee and stop the bad people, or too desperate to see someone plans destruction, or just lack the information needed to stop the destruction.
Bad people: a selfish bunch. They're often not hesitating to do anything to go high, so they are usually the ones who rule the world, and therefore screw the lifes of many people around the world, good or bad. (I know it's not as simple as good and bad, but you get the point)

That's how history works.
Get used to it.

[JSB]

Yes, but it pales in comparison. This is an end to the modern growth-driven economic system and a breakdown of many existing power structures. Any system that takes the place of the current one will, by necessity, be a net zero growth, steady-state economic system. It is a greater transformation even than the industrial revolution.

Originally Posted by Mariana Trench

I quoted a very specific part for a reason, and that is to point out that the last century was a painful, multi-decade, crisis driven transformation of society, even if it was economic growth. (I'm thinking particularly about America and Europe, because I'm more familiar with their recent history.)

[James Fletcher]

What are your thoughts?

I would sooner watch Jersey Shore than indulge the alarmist ramblings of unemployed bloggers who don't cite any sources.

Not that I have anything against unemployed bloggers.

[Acting Like Godot]

Originally Posted by JSB

the age of economic growth is over

Four out of the five most populous countries in the world had 6 to 10% economic growth last year.

The countries are China, India, Brazil and Indonesia.

Doesn't seem like a great start to the end of the age of economic growth.

[KaleidoskopicVision]

Economic growth is nothing but larger and larger doses of life force passing through the jaws of the insatiable beast of capitalism.

I think it's really ironic that after years of philosophical humanism, nihilism, time spent in meditation and searching for the truth, I'm starting to find it all poetically stated in the Bible. It's massively humbling.

That said I don't give two hoots about the economy. Mammon ain't my God.

[newmark]

I love these doomsday scenarios. My favorite is the one which worried many people during the 1970's - that was the new ice age that was predicted to cover large parts of Europe

[WarrenG]

Originally Posted by James Fletcher

I would sooner watch Jersey Shore than indulge the alarmist ramblings of unemployed bloggers who don't cite any sources.

Not that I have anything against unemployed bloggers.

I've never come across this site before but...

According to his about and current activities page, he's an author, writes two regular columns, gives speeches, and advises companies on the issues he talks about in the blog. So maybe he's not technically employed, but you couldn't call him unemployed (or uninformed).

Also, the article linked to included 6 references; granted, they are links to news sources and probably not top draw sources, but in the discussion papers section there seems to be sharper sources.

Will you indulge it now?

[WarrenG]

Originally Posted by Acting Like Godot

Four out of the five most populous countries in the world had 6 to 10% economic growth last year.

The countries are China, India, Brazil and Indonesia.

Doesn't seem like a great start to the end of the age of economic growth.

Yep, the world economy grew by 4.3% in the first quarter of this year, and this rate is predicted for 2012. Emerging economies are growing faster, but developed economies also saw growth, with the exception of Japan for obvious reasons.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Mild Slowdown of the Global Expansion, and Increasing Risks, June 2011

There's lots of counter points that could be made to that, but printing money and adding zeros to bank accounts works 'as normal' for a while. So the age of growth isn't over... yet!

[James Fletcher]

Originally Posted by WarrenG

Will you indulge it now?

At a second glance I see he is is associated with Greenpeace, an organization that I consider to be extremist and anti-human.

So, in answer to your question, Snooki was drunk on the beach again...

[WarrenG]

Originally Posted by James Fletcher

At a second glance I see he is is associated with Greenpeace, an organization that I consider to be extremist and anti-human.

So, in answer to your question, Snooki was drunk on the beach again...

First glance: Make incorrect assumptions about the author
Second glance: Assume guilt by association?