Is the world at the brink of war?

[bloodworksinc]

Exhibit a. South Korea vows retaliation against any further attack

SEOUL - South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed retaliation against any further provocation by the North after it attacked an island last week as anger simmered over the government's response.


Exhibit b. WIKILEAKS

This is the biggest leak in US history and it has already started to create cracks in international diplomacy.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by bloodworksinc

Exhibit a. South Korea vows retaliation against any further attack

SEOUL - South Korean President Lee Myung-bak vowed retaliation against any further provocation by the North after it attacked an island last week as anger simmered over the government's response.


Exhibit b. WIKILEAKS

This is the biggest leak in US history and it has already started to create cracks in international diplomacy.

Most likely nothing will come of the leaks. The most offensive and revealing things are the US ambassadors calling leaders names like Hitler or Napoleon.

The Korea thing has a high potential of turning into a war at any second now. Not saying it will, but it could happen. If China backs North Korea, then all hell breaks loose during the war and it's US v China in the war, and no one wins.

[LostMyMap]

a) The two Koreas have been at war for over 60 years. Most people don't realize how often shots are actually fired in that area. This isn't really anything new.

b) While this is unprecedented and will ruffle some feathers, I don't see yet how this would bring the world any closer to war.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by LostMyMap

a) The two Koreas have been at war for over 60 years. Most people don't realize how often shots are actually fired in that area. This isn't really anything new.

No, actually, they haven't. And even if I am missing information here, there hasn't been such a direct attack on this scale. An artillery strike on an inhabited island is a very strong message.

[James81]

It sounds like the Koreas are on the brink of War.

That doesn't *have* to mean World War 3.

The wikileaks thing makes me laugh out loud. I haven't laughed so hard in a while, actually.

[LostMyMap]

Originally Posted by st33med

No, actually, they haven't. And even if I am missing information here, there hasn't been such a direct attack on this scale. An artillery strike on an inhabited island is a very strong message.

Yes, Andrew, actually they have. The only document ever signed was an armistice, which declared and end to open warfare, but was not a peace treaty. They have been in that stalemate since then. I've met many miliatry men who server at the DMZ who told me about the ongoing conflicts that rarely ever make the news. As I said, most people don't even know what goes on over there.

The two Koreas have been on the brink of open warfare for a long time, this recent event just shows that it isn't getting any better.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by LostMyMap

Yes, Andrew, actually they have. The only document ever signed was an armistice, which declared and end to open warfare, but was not a peace treaty. They have been in that stalemate since then. I've met many miliatry men who server at the DMZ who told me about the ongoing conflicts that rarely ever make the news. As I said, most people don't even know what goes on over there.

The two Koreas have been on the brink of open warfare for a long time, this recent event just shows that it isn't getting any better.

The DMZ is a demilitarized zone. They shoot people who try to cross the border from North Korea or South Korea. I've never heard of armed conflicts between forces there. Not saying you are wrong, just haven't heard of anything about it.

[LostMyMap]

Here's a list of some of the crap that's gone on over there:

Korean Border Conflicts and Incidents (1953-Present)

This is the stuff that makes news. There are incidents at the DMZ that don't.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by LostMyMap

Here's a list of some of the crap that's gone on over there:

Korean Border Conflicts and Incidents (1953-Present)

This is the stuff that makes news. There are incidents at the DMZ that don't.

Ah ok. Thanks.

[NDN Scholar]

And if it makes you sleep any better at night, China wouldn't back North Korea. Not after all the gains it's been making since the 80's on the international stage, no way. Moreover, it's actually closer to South Korea these days than it is to the North. Ever since they've been letting economic policies guide their political policies, business has been booming (lol).

[ChrisGinsburg]

Originally Posted by st33med

Most likely nothing will come of the leaks. The most offensive and revealing things are the US ambassadors calling leaders names like Hitler or Napoleon.

The Korea thing has a high potential of turning into a war at any second now. Not saying it will, but it could happen. If China backs North Korea, then all hell breaks loose during the war and it's US v China in the war, and no one wins.

The U.S. can't fight China. Where would we get 99% of our products from?

[aelle]

Here is an interesting article about the power plays in the region: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/30/wo...2&pagewanted=1

From what I hear here in Seoul, both South Korea and China have slowed/stopped their humanitarian aid to North Korea several months ago, including sending food and fertilizer (the soil is quite poor here). Most people guess that the country is on the verge of starvation and is throwing its last bluffs. I also get the feeling that most of the S. Korean population would be favorable to a reunification. They are worried about the economical cost, of course, and right onw they're upset about the civilian deaths, but in general they still feel that Koreans are one people.

Obviously there's the odd chance that North Korea would try to go on a suicide mission, but I'm not too worried.

[NDN Scholar]

Originally Posted by aelle

I also get the feeling that most of the S. Korean population would be favorable to a reunification. They are worried about the economical cost, of course, and right onw they're upset about the civilian deaths, but in general they still feel that Koreans are one people.

Yeah, I heard that, too. Korea was a unified state for more than a thousand years before it was finally carved in half, so five decades of seperation is... pretty small in the greater scheme of things.

But a peaceful re-unification is still quite unlikely to occur within our lifetime, crisis or otherwise.

Originally Posted by aelle

Obviously there's the odd chance that North Korea would try to go on a suicide mission, but I'm not too worried.

As you said, it's probably a bluff. North Korea knows how isolated they are in the world. No true allies to back them up, right? Their military is quickly becoming obselete, and any war that might occur (a very unlikely possibility) would be very short, bloody, and ultimately, in our favour.

The sheer costs of such a conflict, though, scares the hell out of everyone. The relatively small military costs of the wars in the Middle-East already has many people riled up enough as it is. This would make the so-called "War on Terrorism" look like a joke...

[aelle]

Originally Posted by NDN Scholar

But a peaceful re-unification is still quite unlikely to occur within our lifetime, crisis or otherwise.

I don't know. People were saying the same thing about the Germanies even as the Berlin wall was falling. A year later it was a done deal.

Originally Posted by NDN Scholar

As you said, it's probably a bluff. North Korea knows how isolated they are in the world. No true allies to back them up, right? Their military is quickly becoming obselete, and any war that might occur (a very unlikely possibility) would be very short, bloody, and ultimately, in our favour.

The sheer costs of such a conflict, though, scares the hell out of everyone. The relatively small military costs of the wars in the Middle-East already has many people riled up enough as it is. This would make the so-called "War on Terrorism" look like a joke...

I agree with you here.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by NDN Scholar

And if it makes you sleep any better at night, China wouldn't back North Korea. Not after all the gains it's been making since the 80's on the international stage, no way. Moreover, it's actually closer to South Korea these days than it is to the North. Ever since they've been letting economic policies guide their political policies, business has been booming (lol).

Don't know about that. If it was because of economic terms and what they would lose in trade, I'd agree. However, China has been the number one supplier to North Korea and has helped them in the Korean war.

[NDN Scholar]

Originally Posted by st33med

Don't know about that. If it was because of economic terms and what they would lose in trade, I'd agree. However, China has been the number one supplier to North Korea and has helped them in the Korean war.

The Cold War is over. The Korean War itself took place more than fifty years ago. Times change. North Korea has been declining for the past thirty years now, especially ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. If you think the Chinese aid to the North is significant, then take a look at what the Soviets used to give them. It is truly miniscule by comparison. Even more striking is that China has a stronger economic relationship with the South than it does with the North. But this is underscored because the North is so isolationist that China's contribution is seen as large as there are very few other trading partners.

If China truly supported North Korea, then it would be doing everything within its power to prop that doomed state into something powerful. That's what the Soviet Union was doing, and it was doing that well; for a long time following the Korean War, North Korea was much more prosperous than the South. That isn't true anymore, obviously. And China's current limited support for North Korea is more symbolic than anything else.

So rest easy! This is the Pax Americana, a good time to live. Much of the world is connected through the global economy, and so the re-occurence of total wars like our grandfathers had seen last century is simply... unrealistic.

[Miia]

So rest easy! This is the Pax Americana, a good time to live. Much of the world is connected through the global economy, and so the re-occurence of total wars like our grandfathers had seen last century is simply... unrealistic.

I really hope you`re right.

[GrigoriySidelnikov]

Originally Posted by aelle

This would make the so-called "War on Terrorism" look like a joke...

I wonder whether it would really be easy to notice a distinction when that happens.

[NDN Scholar]

Originally Posted by GrigoriySidelnikov

I wonder whether it would really be easy to notice a distinction when that happens.

I chose bad wordings, I know. You can blame it on my own insensitivity, stupidity, and lack of sleep. Sorry.

That aside, North Korea is a nuclear power and the most militarized state on the planet. They have over a million active troops, and many more in reserve, people that are likely brainwashed into fanaticism. They have countless artillery lined up on the South Korean border, within range of Seoul. South Korea has some 25% of its population concentrated in Seoul, which would no doubt be bombed out to nothing in the early stages of war.

In spite of that, they are still outmatched. As economical weaklings, it's a wonder the state hasn't collapsed yet. But their "military-first" policy and international aid keeps them propped up. No other state needs to spend an astounding 33% of its GDP on the military, but North Korea does, and still it is not enough to keep it from becoming obselete. In comparison, America spends only 4% of its GDP on the military, and it is unarguably a militant state itself.

Whatever the case may be, I got some books right now that state the war would end in 87-120 days, so it would be short and fast-paced; but I cannot possibly stress how bloody those days would be. Millions of lives, man. Then you have to add all those years of occupation and counter-insurgency that we are seeing in Afghanistan and Iraq right now. It'd be crazy, but thankfully, it's unlikely to ever happen. If a war in Korea would have took place again, it would have been during the cold war days. But nowadays, North Korea is simply doing what it can to survive; some say they're a really good poker player playing a really bad hand.

[Brutha]

I don't know. People were saying the same thing about the Germanies even as the Berlin wall was falling.

There was a lot of cultural exchange between East and West Germany. There's nearly no exchange between North and South Korea.
North Koreans don't know how worse their politicial system happens to be.

The East German government saw their state as a state of laws. Those East German laws could after the reunification be used to sentence wrongdoing in former East Germany.
Finding an unification agreement where you agree about how you treat people who developed chemical weapons by doing human experiments and who were doing that with high level approval is harder.

North Korea is practically a heritable dictatorship. In contrast East Germany was governed in accordance with a political philosophy.

I also get the feeling that most of the S. Korean population would be favorable to a reunification.

That depends on the terms of the reunification.

North Koreans are patriotic towards North Korea while East Germans weren't patriotic towards East Germany. The East German government even tried to eradicate patriotism.
The trouble is about finding terms that allow the members of the North Korean ruling class to keep their economic status and not be prosecuted while at the same time having a fine democratic system.

Whatever the case may be, I got some books right now that state the war would end in 87-120 days, so it would be short and fast-paced;

That the same prediction that was made before the Iraq war.

[NDN Scholar]

Originally Posted by Brutha

That the same prediction that was made before the Iraq war.

Yeah, and they were right. The initial war was very short. But for some reason, they didn't bring the insurgencies and guerillas into the calculation. If you continued reading my post, you might notice this statement:

Originally Posted by NDN Scholar

Then you have to add all those years of occupation and counter-insurgency that we are seeing in Afghanistan and Iraq right now.

As you say, North Korea is exceedingly isolated. And many of them are fiercely patriotic. The initial stages of the war itself would be much bloodier than the initial stages of the Iraq War. The subsequent occupation guerrila war would, also, be bloodier than Iraq. Moreover, the regime in North Korea doesn't, as far as we know, have the level of unpopularity that the regime in Iraq had.

[Savage]

North Koreans are raised from a very young age to have cult-like obedience to their "Great Leader." He is practically regarded as a God there. They have pictures of him on the walls in their homes, which they bow to every day. There are huge statues of him all over the place.

When anything good happens in their lives, they praise and credit the Great Leader for it. He's the highest power there is. Even the school kids literally pray to the Great Leader. Imagine what it would be like if we all prayed to the U.S. President as our God. That's their reality.

They worship the Great Leader, but they also fear him. There is no freedom of speech. Anyone who speaks out against the Great Leader or who gets caught trying to flee the country will not only be thrown into a harsh concentration camp, but their whole extended family will suffer the same fate as well.

If someone does manage to escape, their extended family is brutally punished for it. Once you're sent to a concentration camp in North Korea, you're never heard from again. Even your kids will be sent there.

When you live in a society where you can be punished by life imprisonment and hard labor till death for your cousin's actions, the citizens do their very best to keep each other in line. People have good reasons to raise their kids to be super-obedient to the Great Leader. To do otherwise is way too risky.

The worst part is that people still attempt escape, even knowing that their families will be tortured and killed no matter what -- whether they succeed or fail. That's how badly some of them want out.

North Koreans are also taught to hate the West, particularly America. The kids actually sing nursery rhymes about killing Americans. It's an integral part of their culture.

Even at the heavily militarized border with South Korea, the North Korean soldiers never patrol alone. They normally work in pairs or groups of 3. The reason is that if one does anything suspicious that looks like he's trying to escape to the South, the other soldier(s) are ordered to shoot him immediately.

There is no Internet access in North Korea. Everything the people are taught about the outside world is tightly controlled.

The whole country really is run like a cult.

If anything happens militarily there, I think it's going to be extremely brutal. If the Great Leader is captured or killed, it would be like killing their God. It's hard to say how the citizens would react to that. I suspect there would be a lot of suicides at least. The question is whether a lot of them will take up arms to exact revenge.

Some will surely stand down, but I think that a serious military intervention there would make Iraq and Afghanistan look like Shangri La.

Even if a war could be won militarily, it would take a Herculean effort to recondition an entire society that's been raised since birth to worship and defer to their Great Leader and to hate the West. A massive amount of re-education would be required, and it would probably take at least a generation or two for it to sink in.

On the other hand, North Koreans are also very disempowered as individuals, and they're strongly conditioned to defer to authority. So initially the best chance of success might be to quickly install a new leader who attempts to partially fill the role of the Great Leader, at least until they can begin to be weaned off that conditioning. To suddenly say, "you're all free" would be to abandon them to chaos.

[JSB]

Looks like even China is fed up.

Wikileaks cables reveal China 'ready to abandon North Korea' | World news | The Guardian

[Miia]

Even if a war could be won militarily, it would take a Herculean effort to recondition an entire society that's been raised since birth to worship and defer to their Great Leader and to hate the West. A massive amount of re-education would be required, and it would probably take at least a generation or two for it to sink in.

A good example of this is Russia.

North Koreans are raised from a very young age to have cult-like obedience to their "Great Leader." He is practically regarded as a God there. They have pictures of him on the walls in their homes, which they bow to every day. There are huge statues of him all over the place.

When anything good happens in their lives, they praise and credit the Great Leader for it. He's the highest power there is. Even the school kids literally pray to the Great Leader. Imagine what it would be like if we all prayed to the U.S. President as our God. That's their reality.

As someone who comes from an ex Soviet Union country, I can say that sometimes the resistance is much stronger than you could guess. It`s of course hidden and that`s why the outsiders can`t see it. I don`t know what`s really going on in the heads of the North Korean`s but I have a feeling that while they behave in a brainwashed manner, they actually are not that brainwashed... just wanted to mention that.

In no way that implies that they could lead a successful life while suddenly given freedom. It does take mammoth time and energy to reshape the society.

Are there any Russians here? I`d like to know how they see today`s situation in Russia ... are there many people who are missing Stalin in Russia?

[Brutha]

A good example of this is Russia.

Russian didn't say Stalin as someone with paranormal powers. Personality worship did never reach the level it has reached in North Korea.

Are there any Russians here? I`d like to know how they see today`s situation in Russia ... are there many people who are missing Stalin in Russia?

The don't want Stalin back but there are people who think that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a bad idea.

[aelle]

Originally Posted by Brutha

There was a lot of cultural exchange between East and West Germany. There's nearly no exchange between North and South Korea.

"Nearly" being the operative word.

Originally Posted by Brutha

North Koreans are patriotic towards North Korea while East Germans weren't patriotic towards East Germany. The East German government even tried to eradicate patriotism.

I don't know about that. I would say that Koreans as a whole are patriotic towards Korea. Germany was a very young country - first unified in the 19th century, no? The Korean peninsula has been united as one nation and one people for much, much longer than that. It had a unique language and unique mythologies several centuries BC. Archeological evidence shows that the inhabitants of the peninsula already had a distinct genetic markeup by the Stone Age! Apart from the glitch of the last 60 years, it's one of the oldest continuous civilizations in the world. On top of this, it's a Confucian civilization, which means (among other things) that the group is much more valued than it is in the West, that you respect your elders and your traditions. These are trends that run deep, much deeper than the political propaganda of a few decades. Yeah, they tried to eradicate these trends in China too. Tough luck.

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

When anything good happens in their lives, they praise and credit the Great Leader for it. He's the highest power there is. Even the school kids literally pray to the Great Leader. Imagine what it would be like if we all prayed to the U.S. President as our God. That's their reality.

Have you not seen Jesus Camp? The kids prayed to a cardboard cutout of GW Bush...

As for the rest of your post, I tend to agree with Miia. In a place with such fierce speech oppression, you just have no way of knowing people's true feelings and what they would do if they saw a way out.

[Brutha]

"Nearly" being the operative word.

South Korea and the US do much to reduce the little exchange that exist.
I don't see that they will change their ineffective behavior towards North Korea.

On top of this, it's a Confucian civilization, which means (among other things) that the group is much more valued than it is in the West, that you respect your elders and your traditions.

The problem is that the North Korean leadership labels itself as having the role of an elder in that context.
That provides the leadership with political power.

Both North Koreans and South Koreans would like a reunification. As long as they however can't find common terms their won't be a reunification.
The reunification of Germany happened because East German politicians basically gave up. I don't see that the North Korean leadership will give up their power in a similar way.

Germany was a very young country - first unified in the 19th century, no?

No, we did the unifying thing multiple times. We have experience with it
The lack of patriotism comes from the fact that the East German regime opposed patriotism because it goes against communist thought.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Miia

As someone who comes from an ex Soviet Union country, I can say that sometimes the resistance is much stronger than you could guess. It`s of course hidden and that`s why the outsiders can`t see it. I don`t know what`s really going on in the heads of the North Korean`s but I have a feeling that while they behave in a brainwashed manner, they actually are not that brainwashed... just wanted to mention that.

I'm curious about that as well.

How deep does that conditioning go? How loyal would North Koreans be to their Great Leader if the extreme threats to their safety were removed? Is their loyalty mostly for show to protect themselves, or does it run deeper?

I'm sure there are people all across the continuum there, but it's tough to know where most of them calibrate.

Cults can brainwash people to such a degree that they willingly commit suicide. It's hard to imagine what a whole country managed like a cult could do to people. This isn't just a group that people join as teenagers or adults. They're conditioned this way from birth, and their exposure to outside influences is virtually nil.

[st33med]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

I'm curious about that as well.

How deep does that conditioning go? How loyal would North Koreans be to their Great Leader if the extreme threats to their safety were removed? Is their loyalty mostly for show to protect themselves, or does it run deeper?

I'm sure there are people all across the continuum there, but it's tough to know where most of them calibrate.

Cults can brainwash people to such a degree that they willingly commit suicide. It's hard to imagine what a whole country managed like a cult could do to people. This isn't just a group that people join as teenagers or adults. They're conditioned this way from birth, and their exposure to outside influences is virtually nil.

Hmmm.... Maybe if they were at defeat, Kim Jung-Un/Il would order mass suicide for the whole country, probably making it the hugest suicide group in history. It may sound crazy, but North Korean leaders make batsh*t crazy moves each day.

For example, some days after the artillery attack, Kim Jung-Il visited... a soy sauce factory. I can't make that up. A soy sauce factory. Cameras surrounded him for hours of him just looking around.

*facepalm*

[NDN Scholar]

Originally Posted by st33med

Hmmm.... Maybe if they were at defeat, Kim Jung-Un/Il would order mass suicide for the whole country, probably making it the hugest suicide group in history. It may sound crazy, but North Korean leaders make batsh*t crazy moves each day.

For example, some days after the artillery attack, Kim Jung-Il visited... a soy sauce factory. I can't make that up. A soy sauce factory. Cameras surrounded him for hours of him just looking around.

*facepalm*

I won't bother denying Kim's peculiarity, because he is indeed a rather strange individual (I do a *facepalm* myself everytime I see the dude's hairstyle), but at the same time, he appears to be a skilled politician (or, at least, has very good advisors).

After all, North Korea is struggling to survive. It is a very, very economically weak country. Even if it does have one of the world's largest militaries, it is very obselete. BUT... they have done very crazy and unpredictable things. Such as developing nuclear arms. And attacking South Korean holdings.

This all has the effect of the USA & others being brought to the negotiating table and taking North Korea seriously. If the North had never done these crazy things, then it would simply be dismissed as a failing state soon to collapse on itself.

Some political scientists argue that North Korea is, like a poker player, making the most out of a bad hand. And, thus far, they've been very successful in doing so.