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Old 09-08-2009, 03:44 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default US invasion of Iran

What do you think of this article? Possibly US may invade Iran soon?
Wag The Dog, Again by Philip Giraldi -- Antiwar.com
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Old 09-08-2009, 06:16 PM   #2 (permalink)
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They won't because it's not a war that they can win.

It would also make relection for Obama impossible.
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Old 09-08-2009, 08:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brutha View Post
They won't because it's not a war that they can win.

It would also make relection for Obama impossible.
Exactly. America does not have the troop strength to even consider invading Iran. Besides, the West even sneezed in Iran's direction, they would blockade the Gulf, effectively cutting off all oil exports from the region.
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Old 09-08-2009, 08:25 PM   #4 (permalink)
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These are very logical arguments based on an objective world view. What about the subjective?

A minister predicted a while ago that if Bush was elected for a second term, US would go to war against Iran. That frightened me, so I decided that it would not happen and focused on things that I wanted rather than on things that I don't want....
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Old 09-08-2009, 08:35 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by WanderingOak View Post
Exactly. America does not have the troop strength to even consider invading Iran. Besides, the West even sneezed in Iran's direction, they would blockade the Gulf, effectively cutting off all oil exports from the region.
The effectiveness of an Iranian blockade is questionable. The US is strongest when it can rely on technology in conventional war scenarios. Naval battles are one place the US usually has a decisive advantage. Add to this that Iran's Navy is mostly designed for coastal protection and is tiny compared to the US, and a blockade would be difficult at best.

As Brutha said, it is a war that cannot be won. If the goal is political, it is inherently counter-productive. If the goal is economic, the cost of war would outweigh the benefits.
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Old 09-08-2009, 09:01 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Invasion is government intervention. It is socialism...
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Old 09-08-2009, 10:28 PM   #7 (permalink)
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The US doesn't need to invade Iran. All they need to do is let the Israelis go and do their "surgical strikes" on Iran's nuclear facilities. Then, as far as the two governments are concerned, the big problem is solved. Regime change in Iran can come later.

Of course, imposing your will on another country often has unintended consequences... the term "glass parking lot" comes to mind on this occasion.

People get the government they deserve, so let the Iranian people sort it out before it all escalates into something with a global flavour.
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Old 09-09-2009, 12:46 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brutha View Post
They won't because it's not a war that they can win.

It would also make relection for Obama impossible.
Vietnam and Iraq were both wars we couldn't win, yet we charged into them anyway.
Obama got elected in 2008 with a healthy majority even though he has always been pro-war.
What makes you think people will stop ignoring his stance on war next election?
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Old 09-09-2009, 01:11 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Roman empire turned citizens of invaded countries to roman citizens.
Perhaps if they are offered to become American citizens they may agree to be invaded...
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Old 09-09-2009, 05:02 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Seems unlikely. Bush and Obama are like two ends of a spectrum. IMO, Obama is sensible, sensitive and intelligent and the US is lucky to have him as a president.
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Old 09-09-2009, 06:34 PM   #11 (permalink)
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Seems unlikely. Bush and Obama are like two ends of a spectrum. IMO, Obama is sensible, sensitive and intelligent and the US is lucky to have him as a president.
In my opinion Obama represents the better side of Americans.
When you meet people from different countries, you realize most of people are good, no matter the country.
Obama seems one of them.

There are a few screwballs, very few, in every country that cause the planetary mess we have.
Those are the ones who go to the headlines.
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Old 09-10-2009, 01:02 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Quote:
Vietnam and Iraq were both wars we couldn't win, yet we charged into them anyway.
I don't think that the Iraq war was completely unwinnable to start out with.

Quote:
Obama got elected in 2008 with a healthy majority even though he has always been pro-war.
What makes you think people will stop ignoring his stance on war next election?
Obama pulled it off to be seen as the peace candidate among democratic voters.

There practically no way for Obama to win over the typical conservative who watches fox. Even when Obama does preventive detention and wars they will still prefer a Republican.

The way Obama does things at the moment you will have a third party canditate on the left of him that gets a bunch of votes.
Al Gore lost to Bush partly because Nader got votes on the left.

I think we also agree here that the US economy won't magically turn well in 2010 or in 2011. While blaming everything on Bush works at the moment in the media, it won't work anymore in 2011.
Explaining to the American public why the US is still in Iraq also won't be easy at the next election either.
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Old 09-10-2009, 01:02 AM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Vietnam and Iraq were both wars we couldn't win, yet we charged into them anyway.
I don't think that the Iraq war was completely unwinnable to start out with.

Quote:
Obama got elected in 2008 with a healthy majority even though he has always been pro-war.
What makes you think people will stop ignoring his stance on war next election?
Obama pulled it off to be seen as the peace candidate among democratic voters.

There practically no way for Obama to win over the typical conservative who watches fox. Even when Obama does preventive detention and wars they will still prefer a Republican.

The way Obama does things at the moment you will have a third party canditate on the left of him that gets a bunch of votes.
Al Gore lost to Bush partly because Nader got votes on the left.

I think we also agree here that the US economy won't magically turn well in 2010 or in 2011. While blaming everything on Bush works at the moment in the media, it won't work anymore in 2011.
Explaining to the American public why the US is still in Iraq also won't be easy at the next election either.
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Old 09-10-2009, 05:03 AM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Brutha View Post
I don't think that the Iraq war was completely unwinnable to start out with.
It is impossible to win a war waged against an idea, such as terrorism.
You can never defeat the idea of terrorism, or destroy all terrorists.
This is why we could never win in Vietnam, and why we can't win in Iraq or Iran.

The Iraq war succeeded in destroying the country's government, but the one we have put in its place is, if anything, worse than the regime under Saddam. The country is unstable, its infrastructure in ruins, and the idea of terrorism is as strong as ever.
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Old 09-10-2009, 04:00 PM   #15 (permalink)
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There is a way to get rid of all terrorists: Nuke Earth and extinguish humans. I bet cockroaches will not be willing to be terrorists when they rule on Earth.
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Old 09-10-2009, 05:35 PM   #16 (permalink)
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Quote:
It is impossible to win a war waged against an idea, such as terrorism.
The Iraq war was never really about terrorism. Additionally it was strongly mismanaged.
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Old 09-28-2009, 01:15 PM   #17 (permalink)
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I found this Video: YouTube - John Bolton: Israel will attack Iran by end of 2009
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Old 09-28-2009, 02:14 PM   #18 (permalink)
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Wars create debt, debt leads to inflation, social unrest and economical crisis.
Russian communist revolution, chinese revolution and frence revolution, had a precedent of funding war, debt and economic crisis. Countries that fund wars are at risk of suffering revolutions.
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Old 09-29-2009, 04:49 AM   #19 (permalink)
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I do not believe the US will attack Iran. It is not a war that would achieve national goals, the US does not have the military strength to successfully wage a war against Iran and the American people will not support yet another theater of war.

There may be sanctions from the world in which the US would play a role and a blockade in which US naval forces could play a major role. I think all of the above options are futile.

I believe Israel would wish to attack Iran but is aware that doing so will provoke a storm in the area while only deterring the production of nuclear weapons by a maximum of eighteen months.

A negative side effect of any attack on Iran would be to shore up the current regime there and garner support for said regime. The people of Iran would react to a strike anywhere in the country as a strike against themselves personally and make any kind of peace more difficult and distant.

Killing people and braking things is generally a bad idea and in this case will only make the situation much more difficult.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:29 PM   #20 (permalink)
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The time when countries and companies had interests aligned is long gone.
Iran war would bring money to companies and economic ruin for US citizens. Companies make profit, US citizens die as slave soldiers (unable to go home when they want).
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Old 09-30-2009, 04:23 AM   #21 (permalink)
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I don't think that the Iraq war was completely unwinnable to start out with.
Has anyone seen the documentary "No End In Sight"? It's tragic that the running of the war was delegated to cronies who had no military background, little knowledge of the volatile factions in Iraqi society, and worst of all, absolutely ignored the opinions of the experienced officers on the ground. These empty suits could barely be bothered to fly in from D.C. to actually see what was going on in the war theater and made crucial decisions from afar without a clue.

We learned nothing from Vietnam. We can never again assume the mighty US armed forces can conquer a smaller country with ease. It is not that simple. We cannot be cavallier about committing the lives of our young men and women to death and destruction. Now Afghanistan is heating up and Obama is under pressure to send more troops there. To attack Iran - ridiculous. We've barely enough troops as it is. And I will be very, very sceptical about any claims that we must attack because there is an "imminent threat".

What's even more infuriating is that while we're enmeshed in an 8-year war in 2 countries, we still haven't got the main perpetrator, Osama Bin Laden. I think we tried to kill a mosquito with tanks and bombs, and he's still floating around out there, at least there's no proof he's dead. Bush seemed peculiarly unconcerned about capturing the thug behind the 9/11 attack, and obssessed about taking down Hussein, who had nothing to do with it. Now we are stuck in Iraq for who knows how long? Does anyone see an "End In Sight" to this ??
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Old 09-30-2009, 06:03 AM   #22 (permalink)
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Nikolai II decided to go to war, and the high military spending and scarcity of supplies, higher taxes to have enough funds, tightened the pockets of a society already in crisis, before revolution in Russia.

In China, the nationalist regime sank chinese into crisis and it imposed a heavy load on citizens to pay for war. When WWII was over, it was too late and chinese revolution took place.

In 1774 France had suffered losses caused by Louis XIV. Poor administration of Luis XV and the losses of french war in India (1754-1763) and the raise of debt caused by the US war of independence (1775-1783) and a financial crisis, led to revolution in France.

In all cases, the statu quo was put down. So if US goes to war, it may be likely that it ends having a revolution in a few years that may put down bankers and probably US may break apart in independent countries like USSR did.

My guess is that supporters of war in Iran may not have an inconvenience about repeating history.

Last edited by ar81; 09-30-2009 at 06:17 AM.
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Old 10-04-2009, 02:04 AM   #23 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lupe View Post
What do you think of this article? Possibly US may invade Iran soon?
Wag The Dog, Again by Philip Giraldi -- Antiwar.com
unlikely, Mr Obama main aim to rejuvenate economy. I do not think America is ready for another war not during the current administration.
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Old 10-08-2009, 12:05 AM   #24 (permalink)
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Default President Obama is NOT pro-war

Quote:
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Vietnam and Iraq were both wars we couldn't win, yet we charged into them anyway.
Obama got elected in 2008 with a healthy majority even though he has always been pro-war.
What makes you think people will stop ignoring his stance on war next election?

Have you ever read President Obama's 2002 speech against going to war with Iraq?

He said, "What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne."

It is a remarkable speech. Take a few minutes and read the entire speech.

Organizing for America | BarackObama.com
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Old 10-08-2009, 11:31 AM   #25 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by John Tedder View Post
Have you ever read President Obama's 2002 speech against going to war with Iraq?

He said, "What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne."

It is a remarkable speech. Take a few minutes and read the entire speech.

Organizing for America | BarackObama.com
A speech doesn't make someone anti-war.

If I were to be cynical, I'd say it was politically expedient to speak out against the Iraq War. Perhaps it made little difference at the time but later in his career it was a mark in his favor. In regard to Iran, I don't think he ever said that he'd taken the prospect of fighting them off the table. Consider also that there are powerful people with influence over Washington, people who would not take lightly to Iran's threat to stop accepting US dollars for their oil. You'll note it was around the time they made that threat when all this talk of war with Iran popped into the mainstream media.

Maybe Obama doesn't want to go to war. In fact, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he doesn't. But he's one man against many. However, while it would be a hard fought victory, I think it's unlikely the US would strike Iran. This isn't like Iraq. There are fewer who would be willing to finance this war, and it would be much harder to win public support.
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Old 10-09-2009, 01:02 PM   #26 (permalink)
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How about using more inexisting WMDs to gain support?
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