War: Russia x Georgia

[Sam988]

Things are looking pretty ugly around there... any thoughts about what you think the consequences will be and to what degree it will escalate?

[Dan.Linehan]

Not sure where it'll go. I read this article about it tonight that was pretty sad.

[Sam988]

Originally Posted by Dan.Linehan

Not sure where it'll go. I read this article about it tonight that was pretty sad.

Yes, against russia i don't think that anyone will be willing to help


But i think that georgia isn't that innocent; it must have done some bad stuff to south ossetia and its citizens (many of which are russians) to piss off russia so much.



By the way, the baby in the womans' arms looks like just got out of a horror movie! Scary face...

[mncz]

Mmm, thing is, Georgia is quite innocent here. They did nothing to the Ossetins. The territory is just a place where Russia's political ambitions clash with Georgia's wish for independence and this war is how Russia wants to strenghthen its position in Caucasus and its "superpower" ambitions. By this event they are also testing the reaction of Nato/USA/Eu, and if it proves to be in their favor, Russia will move on to other territories that it considers to be "rightfully theirs", that including Baltic countries, Belorussia etc. The thing that pisses off Russia is not something anyone did in recent past, the subject of their madness is still the fallout of Soviet Union, and Russia is quite determined to regain at least some of the territories that were lost back then. Make no mistake there

Not happy about this turn of events at all and also disgusted by the lazyness of all sorts of world power persons/organisations.

[escapee]

Georgia is quite innocent here. They did nothing to the Ossetins

They killed 1400+ Ossetian in the process of recapturing Ossetian, Ossetia is an independent state much like Taiwan separated from China. Where is the public outrage on such brunt and brutal act committed by the Georgian president on the night of Olympic? Free Ossetia (Free Tibet, Free Taiwan ) ?

I once heard someone said that in the world of politics, there is no right or wrong. I begin to understand it now better.

YouTube - Georgia Defense Minister Describes Russian War/ Protecting US Oil Interest

YouTube Description:
Will US attack Russia to protect it's precious oil pipeline that runs through Georgia? 1,000,000 million barrels of oil a day roll thru Georgia.

YouTube - GENOCIDE: Georgia is killing innocent ossetian people.

Russian source : GENOCIDE: Georgia is killing innocent ossetian people.

Can we all PD of smart members carve out a small island that isn't to close to the epicenter of earth quake and live our life peacefully with renewable energy, organic food and without politics ?

Lets call it Stevie land of freedom.

[mncz]

All the conflicts in South Ossetia in the last 20 years have been fuelled by Russia, providing money and resources to the separatists and thus weakening Georgia. Before Russia extended to the region in early 1800 there were no significant conflicts there at all, but since then Russia considers these territories to be rightfully "theirs" and will do anything (in the largest possible sense of the world) to keep them under its influence. Thats exactly what is happening there right now. Ossetins are just pawns in their game.

[escapee]

So are you saying that it's okay to kill 1400+ of civilians just to capture the city in the night of Olympic ?
The Ossetians clearly wanted to be either independent or be absorbed into Russia. So be it. Georgia has lost Ossetia.

[mncz]

Are you absolutely sure that Georgians did it? This would not be the first time when Russia lays waste to territories they are "protecting" just to accuse the opposite side of doing it. Also, Georgia has already ordered ceasefire, and Russia still accuses them of continuing the conflict.. which is something they always do to excuse their own actions in escalating the conflict. Also, if I recall correctly, there was a vast collection of Russian troops right on the border of Georgia going on for months now. I highly doubt that Georgia really choose in their own free will "ok, it seems like a nice time to invade Ossetia right now, lets go and kill some people". The conflict was provoked, and it was provoked by Russia.

Thing is, I live quite close to Russia and know from first hand experiences how Russia twists and turns truth to their favor. It is what they do.

That said, I do not defend either side. As you rightly put it, there is no "right" or "wrong" in a conflict. I prefer peace over anything else. It is their conflict, all who are involved in it have chosen to participate in it at some level and there is not much we can do to resolve it except send love to all who are suffering from it right now.

[Brutha]

By this event they are also testing the reaction of Nato/USA/Eu, and if it proves to be in their favor, Russia will move on to other territories that it considers to be "rightfully theirs", that including Baltic countries, Belorussia etc.

The Baltic countries are EU territory and are members of Nato, so the response will be quite different from the case of defending Georgia.
But you might be right with Belorussia. The west doesn't like that country anyway.

All the conflicts in South Ossetia in the last 20 years have been fuelled by Russia, providing money and resources to the separatists and thus weakening Georgia.

The US also gives/gave money to some seperatists. Be it Tibet or Taiwan.

[escapee]

Thing is, I live quite close to Russia and know from first hand experiences how Russia twists and turns truth to their favor. It is what they do.

Come on, We all know that every politician in the world twist and turn to their favor, not just the Russian. But what we are seeing in South Ossetia is extremely obvious in my opinion. We have 1400+ documented and reported civilian death as a result of Georgia military act in the night of Olympic. The Georgian president has made a very dangerous move IMO. I'm not sure what exactly is thetrue motive behind the plan, but this may well serves as a diversion plan for Israel to neutralize the "target" in Iran without the Russian involvement. This is a guess on my side.

Lets hope the conflict can be resolved through dialogue .

[ar81]

20th Century.
End of British empire: Colonies got independence
End of French empire: Colonies got independence
End of Japanese empire: After WWII Japanese Asian Sphere of Co-Prosperity crumbled and collapsed
End of German empire: After WWII, 2 attepmts to create an empire ended up with a divided Germany.
End of USSR: After cold war USSR countries became independent.
End of USA: War in Iraq made USA to be internally divided today.

Divisive strategies can't unite.
Destruction is not creation.
It is the worst era to create an empire.
Attempts to create empires ended up in countries being splitted or divided.

EU got to achieved to unite more territories through diplomacy than Hitler did by the force.

Will Russia become divided after war?

[Brutha]

This is a guess on my side.

I don't think that the plan makes sense. Russia couldn't do much anyway against a fast air strike from Israel.

End of USA: War in Iraq made USA to be internally divided today.

The US is very undevided today. There nearly no political violence inside the US. I also don't really see any sign of future political action that could lead to a real devision over question like Iraq.

[flyer]

I'm from Georgia. I want to clear some things up.

I'll start from the most urgent and incredible news: Russia has started full-scale Land operation against us, I mean outside the separatist regions(which they have occupied years before).
They already conquered 2 major towns in west and in east georgia, looks like they are going to occupy Georgia completely. What is more unbelievable is worlds response to this. I can't believe this happens now, here, in XXI century.

about Georgians killing 1400 Ossetins: this number is not verified, read cnn or bbc, it is written everywhere that it is only Russian opinion. Civilians fled Tskhinvali(region capital) days before the conflict, other probably went when conflict began, others were safe in basements. I'm not saying that there were no losses, but not only georgians are responsible fro that, when Georgians took control of the city, Russian bombers started heavy bombing and literally leveled it to earth. My friend told me that when he and other georgian soldeirs were escorting Ossetin civilians to safe place, russian bombers bombed them and just a few of the civilians and solders could survive. I can't believe that this happens today, here.
one more thing, georgians and ossetians, regular people, don't hate each other, there are many mixes villages and families. it's not like in israel or serbia. there was no ethnic cleansing of georgians here in 1993, and was no ethnic cleansing of ossetians now.

Who started that? my answer is Russia? why?
in January, NATO meeting, Georgia could not get MAP(Membershp Agreement Plan), because of Russain pressure over germany and some other countries. But they promised us that georgia would definetely become NATO member some day. In December there will be next NATO meeting, many thougt that we would get MAP at that meeting.
Russian had only one way to stop this: They had to start war against us. A country which is at war can't become nato member. and they also wanted to destroy our military bases and army, which we modernized to meet nato standards.
another reason for war: Europe currently gets its oil mostly from russia. that's why russian can press them. There is alternative oil pipeline which passes on georgia. current pipeline is small. it was planned that new, large pipelines would be built to transfer oil from azerbaijan, kazakhstan, turkmenistan and other assian countries. Russia had to stop this. if georgia becomes instable country, nobody will build new pipelines here.
this is so obvious....

Russians trained their army in north ossetia days before the conflict started. it was called caucasus-2008. Now we see the name was not only for the training. the solders were specially trained to fight aggainst us. they were handed special papers, which we saw in intetrnet and laughed(we should not have to...) about it. I can show you it, if you wish(it's in russian). info about georgian army was written there. There was written that georgian soldiers have low motivation, because they hate (♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥...)our president, Saakashvili. They came up with a name:: saakashists (like fascists). Remeber that when russian started aggresion aggainst finland and poland they were also against finnish and polish fascism. old habits die hard.

so, how it started. Ossetian separatists started to bomb georgian villages. many civilians and soldeirs died. Our soldiers answered them with artilery of course. Our president ordered cease-fire and offered to talk. But they did not stop. long russian convoy of battle tanks, armored vehicles and many thousands of soldiers crossed georgian border and went into the ossetia.
We could not just sit there and observe how they conquered our country.

The war began. georgians went into ossetia, destroyed ossetian units that shelled georgian villages and quickly took capital of region, tskhinvali.
they met with russians, who suffered heavy losses. the commander of the russain 58-th army was wounded and evacuated to russia with helicopter. but it was only beginnging. russian brought in huge army. with 300 battle tanks, many artilery peaces and soldiers. they started to bomb us all over the country, outside the region. they bombed 24/7, every 20 minutes. one bomb landed on civilian building and killed 60 civilians at once. they attacked economical object, ports and pipelines.
Then our army leaved the region. our president signed cease-fire agreement. They have their plan. On of they motives is to change our democratic pro-western government. There guy at UN churkin could not deny that when american guy asked about that.
they are not going to stop. They don't care about ossetia or ossetins.
I can not understand why normal russain people don't protest that. Incredible. foreign presidents are deeply concerned. We are all very weary of that word, I hate it. We don't give a **** for their concerns. We need help.
Our guys were dying in iraq beacause we were there allies. Now they don't move finger to stop russia. They are jus deeply concerned. I dont' want Americans to fight here, But I can't beleive they don't have enough political power to stop this ****.
sory for bad spelling.


How can this end: I don't know. Nobody seems to care. there are many people here from Russia. Probably there are not as brainwashed from their tv as others, and probably more conscious. I'm interested in their opinion. do Russians really support this madness? Has Medvedyev some psychichological problems? Does anybody protest this in Russia?
I'm not nationalist and I will never be, I won't generalize these things to all russian population,. But I fear many georgians will start to ahte russians from now one. Why does it happen that so many of your neighbours hate you?

[Sam988]

Thanks, very informative post, flyer. Where are you now? In Tbilisi? How are things there?

[Playlife]

Originally Posted by flyer

another reason for war: Europe currently gets its oil mostly from russia. that's why russian can press them. There is alternative oil pipeline which passes on georgia. current pipeline is small. it was planned that new, large pipelines would be built to transfer oil from azerbaijan, kazakhstan, turkmenistan and other assian countries. Russia had to stop this. if georgia becomes instable country, nobody will build new pipelines here.
this is so obvious....

This is probably unrelated to this particular conflict, but wouldn't that pipe go through Iran? Russia has the north coast of the Black Sea so the pipe won't go through there, so I guess it goes through Turkey, and then some other countries lying between Turkmenistan & Co. Pipe going through Georgia would be a longer way around than going straight to Azerbaijan - or is there much oil in Georgia too? I don't know myself, really. Either way, the pipe would have to go though some turbulent countries... or Caspian Sea?

[flyer]

Sam988 - I'm in Tbilisi now. In 1993 my family was expelled from Abkhazia, another separatist region. georgians were majority there, but russian-backed separatists expelled around 300 000 georgian and killed whoever did not want to leave. Now they are coming to here. Nobody cared then, nobody cares now. I'm glad I'm not 4 years old now so I can take a gun and go to defend the capital, even though I have no any military training.

Playlife - Georgia has no oil. current pipeline transports azerian oil - Thttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline

yes, new pipelines would go through caspian sea and transfer oil from central asia to azerbaijan and then through georgia.

[Brutha]

Ossetian separatists started to bomb georgian villages. many civilians and soldeirs died. Our soldiers answered them with artilery of course.

No it's not "of course".
It's a strategic mistake that costs Georgia support from the west.

They have their plan. On of they motives is to change our democratic pro-western government.

They could also want more than that and take Georgia completly.

I dont' want Americans to fight here, But I can't beleive they don't have enough political power to stop this ****.

America doesn't have a basis in Georgia that they could use to defend.

In December there will be next NATO meeting, many thougt that we would get MAP at that meeting.
Russian had only one way to stop this: They had to start war against us.

That more or less means that you have pokered to high.

But I can't beleive they don't have enough political power to stop this ****.

It's called postamerican world for a reason
Welcome in the 21th century

do Russians really support this madness?

Russians don't really like it when neighboring country want to join military allienes against them.

[escapee]

flyer, I have nothing else say except offering my condolensce to Georgian and South Ossetian civilians who are embroiled in this conflict.

The global resource war has an ugly new opening in 2008.

An interesting analysis on CNN
Analysis: Georgia's major miscalculation? - CNN.com

[flyer]

Brutha -

No it's not "of course".
It's a strategic mistake that costs Georgia support from the west.

You know, exchange of artilery fire was a frequent thing there. The so called "peace-keepers" were from Russia (is not it funny when part of the conflict send its army as peacekeepers?) and they did nothing to against it. We demanded to bring real peacekeepers many times, but nobody cared. That night the artillery fire was very intense, so president sensed the things were going wrong, and ordered cease-fire. Maybe it was a mistake to attack russian convoy. But would that change anything? From this perspective, I think the only thing it would change is that Russians would come more easily. Maybe West would become even more deeply concerned in that case Russians had the plan which they would realize, sooner or later.

do Russians really support this madness?
Russians don't really like it when neighboring country want to join military allienes against them.

I was talking about normal people. I can't imagine a normal person wanting to start a war for such reason. By "normal" I mean the kind of people who visit this website...

[Brutha]

By "normal" I mean the kind of people who visit this website...

I would guess that most people on this board don't like wars.
Most people here are also against the Iraq war when it started while a majority of Americans thought at the time that it was right.

Maybe it was a mistake to attack russian convoy. But would that change anything? From this perspective, I think the only thing it would change is that Russians would come more easily. Maybe West would become even more deeply concerned in that case

It's no conflict where military action can bring Georgia anything.
I don't think that Georgias army is strong enough to make it hard for the Russians to invade Georgia.
And it could very well have been a different response from the west if Georgia wouldn't have attacked that region in retaliation.

[flyer]

Brutha -

I would guess that most people on this board don't like wars.

Yes, that's what I meant.

It's no conflict where military action can bring Georgia anything.
I don't think that Georgias army is strong enough to make it hard for the Russians to invade Georgia.
And it could very well have been a different response from the west if Georgia wouldn't have attacked that region in retaliation.

Agree, it looks like a major miscalculation as CNN says.
It was clear that Russia was planning a war in Georgia.
What Georgian government miscalculated is that they probably thought that Russia was planning only small-scale conflict, that is Ossetians attacking neighboring georgian teritories with unofficial help of Russians. That would not ruin Russian reputation and still make Geoprgia an unstable country. When Ossetians started intense artillery bombing and relatively small Russian force entered the region, they decided that it was possible to defeat these forces and it was better to take initiative and take control of the Roki tunnel in north, which is the only way that connects Southern Ossetia to Russia, to prevent more Russian reinforcement to enter.
Maybe that was the initial Russian plan indeed, and what then happened was their plan-B.

Currently, at the meeting of UN Security Council, Russia refuses to sign cease-fire resolution, event though 7 other countries of the Great 8 support the resolution.

[Sam988]

Originally Posted by flyer

Brutha -
Yes, that's what I meant.



Agree, it looks like a major miscalculation as CNN says.
It was clear that Russia was planning a war in Georgia.
What Georgian government miscalculated is that they probably thought that Russia was planning only small-scale conflict, that is Ossetians attacking neighboring georgian teritories with unofficial help of Russians. That would not ruin Russian reputation and still make Geoprgia an unstable country. When Ossetians started intense artillery bombing and relatively small Russian force entered the region, they decided that it was possible to defeat these forces and it was better to take initiative and take control of the Roki tunnel in north, which is the only way that connects Southern Ossetia to Russia, to prevent more Russian reinforcement to enter.
Maybe that was the initial Russian plan indeed, and what then happened was their plan-B.

Maybe georgia just fell in the trap as russia wanted. Russia would lure georgia into attacking them, and then strike back with massive force. But maybe i'm wrong..

Originally Posted by flyer

Currently, at the meeting of UN Security Council, Russia refuses to sign cease-fire resolution, event though 7 other countries of the Great 8 support the resolution.

Yes that's a bad thing. All it takes to veto a proposition is one permanent member of the security council.

[Brutha]

Yes, that's what I meant.

But keep in mind that people on this forum are different than the average guy on the street.

Yes that's a bad thing. All it takes to veto a proposition is one permanent member of the security council.

I wouldn't change much otherwise. Russia has pretty much enough military power in that region to do what it wants anyway.

[flyer]

Good news here: Russia 'ends Georgia operation'

I don't know details of the agreement. Let's see what happens...

[flyer]

hm.. They said they halted the operation but currently Abkhazian and Russain forces are attacking Upper Abkhazia, the only part of Abkhazia that they could not occupy in 1993.

In 1993 they also signed cease-fire agreement, Georgian tanks left Sokhumy and many civilians returned. After that Russians and Abkhaz separatists surrounded the city, bombed it for 13 days. On day 14 Sokhumi fell and they killed every ethnical Georgians left inside the city.


Not sure if that happend after Medvedyev's announcement but several hours ago Russians bombed Gori central square, even though all military units had left the town. Several civilians got killed, including two Dutch correspondents. Reuter journalist were saved by their armored car.
2 days ago one Georgian and one Ukrainian jouranlists were also killed in Tskhinvali by separatists.
Gori university, post building, main market, and TV-transmitter of Gori are burning.

[flyer]

Bombing continues

Interesting article about the conflict: Ossetia: What Do We Do?

[Brutha]

Interesting article about the conflict: Ossetia: What Do We Do?

Interesting article.
Especially if it's true that Putin wants to continue the conflict while Medvedev wants to end it that might tell us more about how Russia works the moment.
Global Guerrillas: RUSSIA'S HOSTILE ACQUISITION is another good article about the conflict.

[ar81]

It looks like weapon manufacturers must be making lots of money with Russian and Georgian taxpayer's money...

[JSB]

When the US supported Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia, Russia warned that it set a precedent re: South Ossettia and Abkhazia.

Kosovo was part of Serbia. NATO intervened in Kosovo to prevent Serbain abuse of the Albanian minority (majority population in the province of Kosovo, but minority in all of Serbia). This may have been the "right" thing to do morally, but it DID set a precedent --- It was acceptable to take military action within the borders of a foreign sovereign nation to defend ethic minorities within that nation. NATO and the US set the precedent, and the US also supported the independence of Kosovo, a historically Serbian province that had never been an independent nation.

This may have been morally "correct", but it means that the international community now has no grounds for protest against Russia's actions. Russia does not have an admirable historical record of treatment of its neighbors, but South Ossettia is majority ethnic Russian, the Georgians have a history of horrible abuses in both South Ossettia and Abkhazia, and the Caucasus region has been a hotbed of tribal and ethnic bloodshed for thousands of years.

It is unsurprising that Russia has intervened in a neighboring country to protect the local Russian population from abuse and slaughter.

(Plus, the current borders of Georgia are a product of the USSR, drawn by Stalin. Why are they considered sacrosanct?)

[schola]

Here is an insightful article. The author's perspective on war is somewhat disturbing, but the article is informative nonetheless.

EXILED ONLINE - MANKIND’S ONLY ALTERNATIVE » War Nerd: South Ossetia, The War of My Dreams - By Gary Brecher


"...But for me, right now, I say let’s stick to the action. This is the war of my dreams—both sides using air forces! How often do you see that these days?—so I’ll skip the history. Just remember that South Ossetia is a little apple-shaped blob dangling from Russian territory down into Georgia, and most of it has been under control of South Ossetian irregulars backed by Russian “peacekeepers” for the last few years.

The Georgians didn’t like that. You don’t give up territory in that part of the world, ever. The Georgians have always been fierce people, good fighters, not the forgiving type. In fact, I can’t resist a little bit of history here: remember when the Mongols wiped out Baghdad in 1258, the biggest slaughter in any of their conquests? Nobody knows how many people were killed, but it was at least 200,000—a pretty big number in the days before antibiotics made life cheap. The smell was so bad the Mongols had to move their camp upwind. Well, the most enthusiastic choppers and burners in the whole massacre were the Georgian Christian troops in Hulagu Khan’s army. Wore out their hacking arms on those Baghdadi civilians.

So: hard people on every side in that part of the world. No quarter asked or given. No good guys. Especially not the Georgians. They have a rep as good people, one-on-one, but you don’t want to mess with them and you especially don’t want to try to take land from them.

The Georgians bided their time, then went on the offensive, Caucasian style, by pretending to make peace and all the time planning a sneak attack on South Ossetia. They just signed a treaty granting autonomy to South Ossetia this week, and then they attacked, Corleone style. Georgian MLRS units barraged Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia; Georgian troops swarmed over Ossetian roadblocks; and all in all, it was a great, whiz-bang start, but like Petraeus asked about Iraq way back in 2003, what’s the ending to this story? As in: how do you invade territory that the Russians have staked out for protection without thinking about how they’ll react..."