Something Big is Coming

[schola]

Ron Paul’s Campaign For Liberty » Blog Archive » Something Big is Going On | The Revolution Continues

...Today things are different from even ancient times or the 1970s. There is something to the argument that we are now a global economy. The world has more people and is more integrated due to modern technology, communications, and travel. If modern technology had been used to promote the ideas of liberty, free markets, sound money and trade, it would have ushered in a new golden age—a globalism we could accept.

Instead, the wealth and freedom we now enjoy are shrinking and rest upon a fragile philosophic infrastructure. It is not unlike the levies and bridges in our own country that our system of war and welfare has caused us to ignore.

I’m fearful that my concerns have been legitimate and may even be worse than I first thought. They are now at our doorstep. Time is short for making a course correction before this grand experiment in liberty goes into deep hibernation.

There are reasons to believe this coming crisis is different and bigger than the world has ever experienced. Instead of using globalism in a positive fashion, it’s been used to globalize all of the mistakes of the politicians, bureaucrats and central bankers...continues in link

[Dan.Linehan]

Great article. I'm still at a bit of a loss on how to prepare for stagflation.

I've been mentally working on my courage a lot lately -- so if anything drastically bad does happen socially / economically, and people are freaking out, I won't be one of them. Hopefully.

I'm trying to look at this like a game -- if the economy collapses and I don't really fear death at all, what would I do? Just basically ignore any chaos that is going on?

One of those things I guess. The answer is always to live with love, but there are so many different scenarios that can test your alignment if you have any doubt.

[Dan.Linehan]

That is a great website by the way. Just caught the latest RP video on the newest post.

[Dan.Linehan]

Buffet says it's stagflation.

[schola]

Dan,

You can ignore it if you don't mind starving to death I guess. Seriously, I'm sure there are some people who wouldn't mind that. I am positive that everyone's lifestyle will be drastically changed, but that doesn't mean that there won't be some people who will be happy all the same.

I'm not that enlightened yet, so I'm taking some precautions. I think self sufficiency will be a very good characteristic to have in the future. The short experiment in epic welfare state policies we have all come to rely on will soon come to an end. I am 22 and have lived in this type of society my whole life but even I realize that we are living in a time when people are less self reliant and independent than ever before.

I don't know what you should do but I can tell you some of the things I'm doing. Getting out of debt. I have some college debt built up but luckily nothing close to the enormous burden a lot of people have. I moved back home and I'm taking some time off before I finish my last year of school to save up some money.

Growing a garden for veggies and keeping chickens for eggs. Planted a few fruit trees too.

Building rain barrels to collect water for the garden and even drinking water if necessary.

Stocking up on food and supplies. I'm aiming for a one month's supply and then going from there.

Buying gold and silver and keeping some cash on hand in case the banks go down.

We live in a very interconnected society and its very easy to ignore how fragile it all is. Just a few kinks could mean that there is no more food on the shelves at the grocery store or no gas at the local station.

---
On a metaphysical/spiritual note, I don't think living in the present and living without fear means that you must not take action when you believe you are in danger.

I think some people might dismiss the ideas in this thread because accepting it would mean they are giving into some kind of fear, but that would be a stupid mistake.

[Eric Revelin]

If the whole system came down, gold and silver wouldn't be half as valuable as food or water. It's also safe to bet that most people aren't going to have gold or silver to trade with. You've got to remember that money is anything we say it is. I think technology would serve as a form of currency to begin with. It's the only thing that would be as valuable to people as food or water. It makes sense to trade batteries for a meal, or a can of gas for lodging.

You've also got to consider that the government would have to do -something- to prevent riots and mass destruction. In all likeliness it won't be worth trusting whatever solution they come up with, but the point is that our infrastructure isn't quite as sensitive as a lot of people make it out to be. Human ingenuity shouldn't be underestimated, especially in a time of crisis.

It's very difficult to predict how things will play out from where we stand. Even safe bets, like planting a garden and moving off-grid, aren't guaranteed to help you weather the worst circumstances, if it comes to that. Say you lived off-grid in the midwest when those storms hit a couple weeks ago. You'd be in the same boat as everybody else. And if people are starving there's no telling where they'll go to find food and shelter. You'd probably need to live in a remote mountain region to ensure that no one would be able to reach you and forcibly take what you have.

So when making preparations you've got to account for the economy, unpredictable weather and the human element. To me this indicates that those who prepare might have a slight advantage but in truth the ones with the highest chance of survival would be the quick adapters and the lucky. It seems like all most of us can do is train our minds and wait.

[schola]

Eric I agree with your first point. If you're not a trader and don't already have an investment portfolio, you should stock up on essentials like food and water before you consider buying gold or investing in a foreign currency.

However, I'm realizing that growing a garden and learning other self sufficient skills are good things to do no matter what the world situation is like. And these skills will become even more valuable in the near future.

The benefits of growing an organic vegetable garden are immense! Here are a few I can think of:

Fun and a great stress reliever.

Confidence and personal satisfaction.

A reliable source of food that in bad economic times.

The taste. Home grown veggies taste better than even the freshest grocery store produce.

Healthier. No harmful chemicals or pesticides.

Cost effective. You're not paying for the costs of shipping and other costs that go into the price of produce at the grocery store.

[Still Growing]

If we all believe something BIG is coming then it will certainly arrive.

Factually there is no data for immediate concern however popular opinion would have me be concerned. The truth does not matter, only the masses interpretation of the truth matters.

Yea, something BIIG will happen because we ALL feel that it will. Its a self fulfilling prophecy.

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to cancel my HBO and change my dinner plans.

[schola]

StillGrowing,

Factually, the data is there for anyone who cares to look. The typical American life is unsustainable and a very serious economic crisis is looming.

You can't get rid of the consequences of $1 trillion in bank write downs with positive thinking.

[Ponce]

When I learned eight years ago as to who was really controlling the economy and the White House I started to get ready for what is to come.... do you want to be a survivalist or a sheep???, once you decided as to which one you want to be then you can either take action and do something about it or keep on going as you are doing.

You future is in their hands only if you placed your future in their hands because they will only have the power over you that you allowed them to have over you.

Surrender hell.........

[Still Growing]

Originally Posted by schola

StillGrowing,

Factually, the data is there for anyone who cares to look. The typical American life is unsustainable and a very serious economic crisis is looming.

You can't get rid of the consequences of $1 trillion in bank write downs with positive thinking.

I believe that with some major actions taken that the US, Inc. could be turned around. I think that we'll have to go into a preverbial chapter 11 before serious change takes place.

[Still Growing]

Originally Posted by Ponce

When I learned eight years ago as to who was really controlling the economy and the White House I started to get ready for what is to come.... do you want to be a survivalist or a sheep???, once you decided as to which one you want to be then you can either take action and do something about it or keep on going as you are doing.

You future is in their hands only if you placed your future in their hands because they will only have the power over you that you allowed them to have over you.

Surrender hell.........

If you are talking about the Private Bankers who own our Federal Reserve , our media, etc? Its true that they are the true sheep herders and not the figure heads we elect. If you control the money and the money supply then you can control the gov't.

These private bankers and other monied interests have been pulling their investments out of the US slowly for some time now. The US is no longer a good investment; its really that simple.

HOWEVER:
Its in the interests of every capitalist that the American consumer continues to consume. Americans live beyond their means, they work harder and harder and its simply too much of a cash cow to let die.

What you are seeing is "The flleecing of America". The America consumers are sheep but don't worry the fleece will grow back for another trimming.

The sheep herders have been trimming the sheep for centuries its just that with You Tube and the internet the sheep are starting to ask questions and are bumping around in the field baaaa-ing.

Nothing has changed. Only awareness.

[Eric Revelin]

Originally Posted by Still Growing

I believe that with some major actions taken that the US, Inc. could be turned around. I think that we'll have to go into a preverbial chapter 11 before serious change takes place.

I tend to agree with this view. The US economy is too important to allow it to collapse, and I think the global economy would have to be a lot weaker for this to be the death blow. Unless, of course, the people in control of all the wealth suddenly decide that they don't like money. If they were inept enough to think that they could thrive without the masses they wouldn't have the riches that they do. The truth is that we're all in this together.

I feel that this is nothing more than a scare. I'm not saying things won't get bad. They might get really bad. Things will change. However, this isn't going to be the end of the world as we know it. It's a big bump in the road but society will endure. Most of us will probably survive. I feel the whole purpose of this is to wake the sleepers in the back of the bus. This is gonna shake and rattle us but it's not going to destroy us, even the ones that are caught completely off guard. Hell, this trial is tailor made for the people that don't see it coming. They're gonna learn that the government isn't the omnipotent parent figure they'd like to think it is and they're going to be forced to re-think their materialistic lifestyles. They're going to have to think for themselves and take responsibility for their own lives. That can only have a positive impact.

[schola]

Originally Posted by Still Growing

HOWEVER:
Its in the interests of every capitalist that the American consumer continues to consume. Americans live beyond their means, they work harder and harder and its simply too much of a cash cow to let die.

What you are seeing is "The flleecing of America". The America consumers are sheep but don't worry the fleece will grow back for another trimming.

The sheep herders have been trimming the sheep for centuries its just that with You Tube and the internet the sheep are starting to ask questions and are bumping around in the field baaaa-ing.

Nothing has changed. Only awareness.

Even the greediest most powerful bankers are no match for the laws of nature.

Eventually the consumer economy we have in the United States will collapse. It is unsustainable. It is impossible for it to continue forever. Impossible.

We consume more than we produce. All these toys and gadgets come IN from other countries, but we produce nothing to send OUT. All our production capacity has been outsourced. So we print more dollars to cover the costs. This means we are at the mercy of countries like China that hold trillions of dollars in their reserves.

Eventually the house of cards is going to fall. It's just a matter of whether it will happen soon or whether the bankers have enough tricks up their sleeves to keep it going a little bit longer.

What we have right now is a perfect storm of sorts, with the housing collapse, credit crisis, huge trade deficit, rampant inflation, and wars in the middle east; it just might be enough to send things off the deep end.


I think you guys are right for having an optimistic perspective though. When it's all said and done, this economic house cleaning will make this world a better place. But the ride to that place won't be an easy one.

[Still Growing]

I agree with what you've just said however it depends upon your definition of collapse.

No more free money for Starbucks and new cars? Boo hoo.

What impact did America's growth have on many European nations? You know a lot of America's production took companies and jobs from Europe but yet they held on to their societies.

I think that America will just have its feelings hurt that they aren't the richest country. That doesn't mean that we'll all be going house to house and becoming cannibals.

Again, it depends upon your definition of collapse.

[schola]

The last time the world financial system collapsed was during the Great Depression. So take that as you will.

No one knows how it will play out this time, of course. It could be a lot easier or a lot worse.

[Still Growing]

I don't disagree.

I watch your posts carefully and respect what I read mostly.

[schola]

Bump to this thread. I think Ron Paul, along with folks like Peter Schiff, have called this right on the money.

Here's Peter Schiff on CNBC today: YouTube - 11/20/2008 Peter Schiff On Fast Money - "The Man Who Called The Collapse"

[alexb5784]

Lots of good information here, I'll check it out. I wonder if America can go through a Great Depression in the 21st century.

[ar81]

Jobs go overseas from US because there is poverty and cheap workers elsewhere. So poverty else affects US. Not all jobs are being cut in US. Many are going overseas. Job market is now global. Developed countries are less competitive in that market, so there is a strong need to fight poverty worldwide, if you want a job for you.

[schola]

ar81,

What happens when the poverty comes home?

[Brutha]

I believe that with some major actions taken that the US, Inc. could be turned around. I think that we'll have to go into a preverbial chapter 11 before serious change takes place.

Do you believe that a political system where you have to get the president, 2/3 of the senate and 1/2 of the congress to agree on major actions is capable to seriously change itself?

Factually there is no data for immediate concern however popular opinion would have me be concerned.

The global shadow banking system controls ~400.000 billion in liabilities.

If it would have to pay 5% of it liabilities that would be 20.000 billion.
Now US, China and Europe are going to spend together maybe 5.000 billion to get out of the thread.

Now there is some argument to be made that the money isn't real in some sense but fictive computer money.
But there no real process to get that fictive money out of doing things.

The money collapse produces things like foreclosures. For every 2.8% increase in forclosure rate normally violent crime increaes by 6.7%.

Normally a giant unsuspected decrease in sales means that a company has to take a credit. When no banks loans anyone any money, those companies have to go out of business.

Energy is very important for a lot of businesses. The energy system is build in a way that sudden shocks can produce shortages if those shocks aren't foreseen. That might further damage businesses that have problems anyway.

Food supply was halve a century ago regional. Now it depends on complex global supply chains. If one part of such a chain breaks, areas that get no food might begin to riot.

If it comes to a lot of public rioting, government might get forced to declare martial law. With todays internet, some Americans will be convinced that it's the plan of the evil world government and take arms against the government.
The government gets real problems with making sensible decisions, when militias start shooting politicians.

It not clear whether those events will happen and crash the system completely but the possibility is there.
It not clear if everything will break or whether the transition will work.

Eventually the house of cards is going to fall. It's just a matter of whether it will happen soon or whether the bankers have enough tricks up their sleeves to keep it going a little bit longer.

I think the question: "What will still stand at the end?", is more important.

[ar81]

Originally Posted by schola

ar81,

What happens when the poverty comes home?

You need to subsidize poor with temporary government jobs. Temporary means from 2 to 4 years.
Is this socialist? No. Recession is as bad for population as Katrina hurricane. Therefore aid for population is needed.
The different is that it is not a natural disaster, but a republican disaster.

In the meantime you need company incubators (government root development programs) that will take at least 2 years to deliver first results, after company mortality stage have passed. That will create jobs that will not go overseas.

Also adjustments must be made to exchange rates, so american workers worth the same as chinese workers, to stop trade deficit that makes liquidity problem worse.

Government needs surplus to pay debts and to pay for these programs, plus health and education, so the logical choice is to cut the military. It is a trade off between playing geopoolitical games or to attend needs of US citizens.

The solution is easy, but certain groups with economic interests may dislike that. So the main enemy of US citizens will be domestic.

In the long term, those incubated companies will also have jobs going overseas, so attending poverty in the world is of utmost importance. The good news is that US does not have to pay, but it needs to push local politicians of poor countries so they do their job. So instead of having politicians and parties that live like kings while people starve, they will have to be pushed so poverty is erradicated. They won't like that, and it is cheap and very cost-efective for US.

The days when US aid went to bank accounts of poor countries' politicians must be over. It is time when those politicians must enter a hardwork regime, for nowadays US jobs going overseas makes US citizens to subsidize the luxury of those lazy politician bastards of poor countries.

[Brutha]

In the meantime you need company incubators (government root development programs) that will take at least 2 years to deliver first results, after company mortality stage have passed.

That assumes that the government has money that worth something.
If the Austrians are right with their credit hypothesis, printing more money might lead to hyperinflation.

The good news is that US does not have to pay, but it needs to push local politicians of poor countries so they do their job. So instead of having politicians and parties that live like kings while people starve, they will have to be pushed so poverty is erradicated.

Why do you thing that plan will work any better in the future than it did in the past?

[schola]

I'm curious if anyone has changed their mind since I posted this thread.

It's now been 6 months since I posted this thread. Things have gotten a lot worse since July. We've had the collapse of Lehman Bros, the nationalization of Freddy and Fanny, the multi-trillion dollar bailout packages and more. Maybe Ron Paul knew what he was talking about?

Who should we listen to about the economy? The people who called it right or the talking heads on TV?

By the way, although he's a physician and congressman, Ron Paul has studied Austrian Economics for 20+ years and is a member of the Mises Institute.

What is he saying now? Here's an interview with him recently on CSPAN: LewRockwell.com Blog: Ron Paul at the Top of His Game, When We Need Him Most

Another person who predicted the current crisis way back in 2005 is Peter Schiff. His site is here: Euro Pacific Capital : Because there's a bull market somewhere.

[bman]

Yep I've been following all their interviews on youtube.


It's because of them that I understand how the system works.


But I missed the boat buying gold when it's affordable and now it's at usd 921 per ounce.


DAMMMNNNN!

[Dan.Linehan]

Originally Posted by schola

I'm curious if anyone has changed their mind since I posted this thread.

It's now been 6 months since I posted this thread. Things have gotten a lot worse since July. We've had the collapse of Lehman Bros, the nationalization of Freddy and Fanny, the multi-trillion dollar bailout packages and more. Maybe Ron Paul knew what he was talking about?

Who should we listen to about the economy? The people who called it right or the talking heads on TV?

By the way, although he's a physician and congressman, Ron Paul has studied Austrian Economics for 20+ years and is a member of the Mises Institute.

What is he saying now? Here's an interview with him recently on CSPAN: LewRockwell.com Blog: Ron Paul at the Top of His Game, When We Need Him Most

Another person who predicted the current crisis way back in 2005 is Peter Schiff. His site is here: Euro Pacific Capital : Because there's a bull market somewhere.

I think we need to stop depending on money and measure wealth in other ways. The dollar has been devalued too much to make it worth anything at this point.