What Are the Odds of Becoming a Black Belt? (Blog)

[Savage]

Use this thread to discuss the following entry from Steve Pavlina's blog:

What Are the Odds of Becoming a Black Belt?

[The Probabilist]

Thank you for this entry. It reminded me alot of the kind of training that Robert Kiyosaki went through as an entrepreneur. An interviewer stated the odds of being a succesful business owner. We all know about the statistics that nine out of ten businesses fail within the first five years, maybe even earlier than that.

His reply was simply that he was determined to fail nine times out of ten before he founds the business that eventually makes it. And so he made it in the third attempt and got all his money back from the first two bankruptcys. Statistically, I'd guess that the remaining seven failures of those ten are separate individuals that fail once and decide to never try that again. That's the kind of mentality that the majority of people has, as Steve pointed out. A higher entry in different fields simply shifts that 99 % lower to 90 % or further.

[daveangeles]

Right on. I really liked reading through that one.

[Henrik]

I really appreciate this entry. Wonderful and motivational stuff.

[Rohok]

I think that the problem with most people is that they see someone in a position where they would like to be and think: "Look how easy she's got, she's got all the money, she's got good health and a great husband."

The person only sees the outward outcome of hard work, planning, commitment and they believe it is somehow related to luck.

[daveangeles]

Rohok, yeah, I agree.

I recently skimmed through a book Larry King wrote about how to interview people and become a better communicator. He said a mistake in interviewing celebrities is to say, "I was gonna be an actor/TV star/author/NBA player..." because it basically belittles the other person's hard work and years of experience.

It's like saying, "Hey, if you can do this stuff, anyone can do it."

[Rohok]

Originally Posted by daveangeles

Rohok, yeah, I agree.

I recently skimmed through a book Larry King wrote about how to interview people and become a better communicator. He said a mistake in interviewing celebrities is to say, "I was gonna be an actor/TV star/author/NBA player..." because it basically belittles the other person's hard work and years of experience.

It's like saying, "Hey, if you can do this stuff, anyone can do it."

Truth of the matter is, if they can do it, you can also do it.

It kinda goes like this:
Coach: "Do you want me to teach you how to succeed?"
Wishfull Person: "YES, please, I NEED answers."
Coach: "Ok then you have to work for 10 years taking only 2 weeks vacation a year with no weekends. And work 60+ hours a week. You have to plan, commit and give it your all."
Wishfull Person "C'mon, even God rested one day and I love to play videogames, sure I can take some breaks and take weekends off. And 60 hours a week, are you crazy??? 45 hours tops for me. I wanna live the high life not be working like crazy."

The answer is within you, always within you. The magic formula for success is Hard Work. Simple as that.

[mattsonn]

"Your odds of success in your field of choice won’t be found in any statistics. Success is a choice, not a coin flip. You succeed by deciding what you want, knowing why you want it, and committing to it"



You know, I agree with this statement and with what Rohok said about hard work being necessary. But the thing is, out of the 90% (?) of entrepreneurs that fail, surely a large percentage of them invested a lot of hard work into it.

[The Probabilist]

Originally Posted by mattsonn

You know, I agree with this statement and with what Rohok said about hard work being necessary. But the thing is, out of the 90% (?) of entrepreneurs that fail, surely a large percentage of them invested a lot of hard work into it.

Yes, they surely do. But in the end, experience is more powerful because it can transform hard work into smart work. Those who fail and never try again are the ones that think the future is more of the same, while the first day of attempting a new skill is most often the worst one and it gets all the easier after that. They use the power of now against them.

Of course, there are many variables that are very different when we compare starting businesses to becoming a black belt.

[impaul99]

Awesome post Steve. I really enjoyed that one. Thanks!

[extremeperspective]

I used to be involved with a Network Marketing company and the top question was always "what percentage of people succeed?" I hated that question, and the best reponse I could come up with was "100% of those who decide"

One of the problems with Network Marketing is the low barrier to entry. So the neophytes were mixed with the Black Belts. I often wished it cost $20k to join instead of $80.

Even worse, the government got involved and made us publish the "Average" earnings of the average distributer. Of course, the average distributer bought the kit and was never heard from again.

The odds are with those who decide. Good post

[TheColonel]

Nice blog Steve.

I would add that if you are smart enough to choose a field that you love, or one that inspires you, all the "hard work" isn't so hard.

[Andrew Brunelle]

How about that blog? Was good, enjoyed the subtle nuances in punctuation, the message was great, success is a mindset and the "dabblers" do not have that mindset. Be committed. May take time, but will be worth it. Enjoy the journey. Hard work. Etc.

[Scorpio]

I think one message you can get from this is that while you may completely fail at one goal, if you have the right mindset than you can pick up with something new entirely and possibly have better luck at that.

No matter how hard they work, some people just aren't going to become high-tier actors, businessmen, athletes, or bloggers. The outside circumstances may not be aligned in their favor, or they may not have enough of the innate talents required of their field. And I think it's a skill to recognize when it's time to cut your losses and move on. But if they have that non-dabbling mindset they will eventually hit on something and be successful in the longer term picture.

[Rohok]

Originally Posted by mattsonn

You know, I agree with this statement and with what Rohok said about hard work being necessary. But the thing is, out of the 90% (?) of entrepreneurs that fail, surely a large percentage of them invested a lot of hard work into it.

I have failed 2 previous business and am finally with one that is working.

Work is planning, getting the proper finances, going door to door and promoting your business, making phone calls, hiring the best people, looking for the best location, negotiating the lease, being concious about ONE dollar, making boxes at 9PM, rushing to FedEx, calling your customers back.....

And even if you do all of that you may still fail. Most of the time you can usually pinpoint one or 2 reasons for your failure. Maybe it was underfinancing, maybe it was the competition, maybe it was your location, maybe cashflow etc etc. All of that can be analyzed and you can maximize your chances of making it.

I know all of this may sound cliche and it has been repeated many times, but it works.

I have one analogy that I like for my life. Life is like the game of Golf, the NEXT shot is always the one that matters. Forget your LAST shot and focus on your NEXT shot. Be a professional athlete, when they don't make a basket, they don't feel bad, just FOCUS to make the next one.

You only fail when you give up and quit.

[Michael Chui]

Originally Posted by mattsonn

You know, I agree with this statement and with what Rohok said about hard work being necessary. But the thing is, out of the 90% (?) of entrepreneurs that fail, surely a large percentage of them invested a lot of hard work into it.

I've been told that venture capitalists are more willing to go with a failed entrepreneur who they've worked with before than a brand new face. The reason is, having worked with this person, they already know he's good, they know why he failed, whether it was survivable, whether survival would have been worth it, and so on and so on.

And they also already know that the person doesn't give up easy.

[Cassie]

Too much is geared towards instant gratification. Thanks for the wonderfully inspiring post.

[Baltar]

Originally Posted by mattsonn

You know, I agree with this statement and with what Rohok said about hard work being necessary. But the thing is, out of the 90% (?) of entrepreneurs that fail, surely a large percentage of them invested a lot of hard work into it.

The statistic is something like "80% of businesses fail in the first five years, and 80% of the remaining ones in the five years after that." But Steve is 100% right about this -- other people's failures don't determine the outcome for you. I think that the more realistic approach is that your chance of failure could be 80% in your first venture or with the first product you create, and then as you gain experience and understanding each time you try again your chance of success will go up and you'll eventually succeed.

And by the way when a business fails, most of the time it's due to running out of money (not being profitable, or even self-sustainable). This in turn is mostly due to lack of experience of the founders in things like market research, marketing and sales, all of which can be learned in time. But if you give up prematurely you'll never learn them. People who give up after their first failure are giving up in the first few minutes of the marathon.

"Hard work" alone isn't enough to succeed in business though, it's the right kind of hard work. The idea that hard work alone will lead to success is very misleading (and wrong). There's plenty of hard work you can do that won't get you anywhere. You can spend lots of time working on a product, but if you finish it and then start working on another product instead of working on sales and marketing (the work that's responsible for all your revenue), then your hard work in product development will be for nothing as you'll eventually run out of cash.

[Colm OReilly]

Change the "kung fu" to "Brazilian Jiu Jitsu" and I'll completely agree with the post.

[Nancy Lebovitz]

The Role of Deliberate Practice in the Acquisition of Expert Performance
is an article about research showing that elite performers in many fields have put in 10,000 hours of directed practice. Directed practice isn't just putting the time in--it's having goals and paying attention to whether what one is doing is contributing towards achieving them.

I recommend Kenny Werner's _Effortless Mastery_ for explaining how to lower anxiety and aim at excellence (one's own personal excellence, not a generalized standard) rather than at avoiding mistakes. It's specifically about musical performance--he's a jazz musician who beat paralyzing anxiety and procrastination--but has general applications.

[alexb5784]

Nancy, thanks for the great link to the psychology study. Here is a link to an article that I that first discovered in November of 2005. It's also worth a read. I love the ideas that come out of this forum

Psychology Today: The Winning Edge

[helgi]

I had a great time reading this, exactly the sort of encouragement I needed right now.

Most of the time when discussing the odds of succeeding in something, people seem to derive satisfaction from leaning on the negative side. When you have an idea for doing something, you can almost depend on most of the population to furrow their brow and start citing statistics.

It's a chicken/egg thing; 99% of people fail because 99% of people believe that 99% of people will fail.

[alexb5784]

I'm looking at Kenny Werner's book on Amazon.com and it has great reviews. Does anyone know of any other books on the market that are geared towards mastering a skill? I'm looking for something that addresses the psychological side to building excellence as opposed to, Read my book and become a better writer in 30 days, or whatever sounds easy. Any ideas? I want to read something that addresses the need to cultivate grit and how to commit to something. Is it even possible to write a book on this subject?

Thanks,

Alex

[JBRU]

I liked this blog entry and it reminded me of a few things.

The first was something I read earlier (perhaps even one of Steve's earlier posts!) about a way to look at one's life. At one time or another most of us have thought, "If I could relive my life with what I know now...." If you consider that we will live to be an average of 70-some years old, you can look at your life as consisting of the things you want to do by the time you get to be that age.

I looked at my current age (40 in March) and said to myself, "You know what? You can basically live your life over!" I've got a good 30 years left and, given advances in health care, probably 40 or more! I can treat the resources I've generated to this point as the starting capital for the new "baby" me. I can take the next 18 years to develop a new "adult" me. Further, I can begin anything I'd like and, if I dedicate myself to it with the knowledge that I have now, I'm certain to be successful!

So I've embarked upon a 40-year plan. The first element of that plan is that I'd like to learn to play guitar. I've told many friends that one of my ambitions is to be an 80-year-old blues guitarist. A few scant months into this plan, I can't play the guitar very well at all! I don't get down on myself for this, though, because the plan is be good enough to enjoy performing when I'm 80, not next week. I might make significant progress in five years or so, but if I don't, it doesn't matter. Who expects a 5-year-old to be perfect?

Persistance and hard work help you succeed, but so does having a realistic plan for success. As Steve pointed out, strarting a new endeavor and expecting instant success is like expecting a child to be an expert. Give yourself permission to learn in your own time.

[swampdog]

First, I've started on the Photo Reading course and one thing I'm quoting to my family from that is (roughly): People say that anything worth doing is worth doing well. I say, anything worth doing is worth doing badly at first.

If you're too afraid to be a clueless idiot in something for awhile, you'll never succeed. If you pretend you know what you don't and don't ask questions, you'll (probably) fail. If you try to jump in too far over your head, you'll (probably) fail. If you give up if you don't succeed right away, you'll definitely fail. Third time lucky entrepreneurs are people who aren't afraid of that initial failure and don't give up with the first failure.

Also, I watch (too much) reality tv shows sometimes. It REALLY gripes me when they say, "We're down to 6 contestants, your odds are now 1 in 6 of winning a million dollars". WRONG WRONG WRONG. Your odds are incalculable, depending on current position, luck, and skill. If their odds were 1-6 then there would be no betting lines on it.

[Markus74]

At last a post again which makes even sense to me!

[Michael Chui]

What, the financial ones were beyond you? Great post, Steve.

[DiscoDan]

Originally Posted by alexb5784

I'm looking at Kenny Werner's book on Amazon.com and it has great reviews. Does anyone know of any other books on the market that are geared towards mastering a skill? I'm looking for something that addresses the psychological side to building excellence as opposed to, Read my book and become a better writer in 30 days, or whatever sounds easy. Any ideas? I want to read something that addresses the need to cultivate grit and how to commit to something. Is it even possible to write a book on this subject?

Thanks,

Alex

I would suggest "Mastery: The Keys to Success and Long-Term Fulfillment" by George Leonard.

[Horace]

Great post Steve.

[BigBluecrab]

Great article Steve...

So true, so obvious, yet how many have quit before even beginning?
Just read Napolean Hills' 'Think ,and grow rich' . Very helpful with many of the same sentiments here. Hard work [but smart work], persistance,positive mental attitude will get you there.
..How many times did Edison fail? He tried what? 1500 filaments before
making a working light.
..also saw an interview with Eric Clapton who still practices every day by the way. Interviewer said "you make that look so easy". He said "60 years of practice will do that".

also from above on averages : ' On average we all have one breast ,and one testicle.' Sorry for the off color ,but always thought it funny ,and puts things in [erspective.