What happened to the good bloggers? (Internet traffic)

[TechnoGuyRob]

Hi everyone!

I started reading Pavlina's blog about a year and a half ago, but as of the past 8 months I've been real busy with school and so forth, and pretty much have given up on the internet except for e-mail and research.

I went to Alexa.com (a site that shows internet traffic) and noticed this:

Traffic Details for: joelonsoftware.com/

I checked out a few other good bloggers as well, and saw the same phenomenon everywhere: everyone spiked out in late 2006, and now seems to be fading into obscurity. Anyone know why this happened? What's going on here? This seems so weird! I've also noticed the downward trend in Technorati's traffic, so is it just that the golden age of blogging has passed?

Any clues?

[seeker5]

Originally Posted by TechnoGuyRob

Hi everyone!
I went to Alexa.com (a site that shows internet traffic) and noticed this:

Traffic Details for: joelonsoftware.com/

Anyone know why this happened? What's going on here? This seems so weird! I've also noticed the downward trend in Technorati's traffic, so is it just that the golden age of blogging has passed?

Remember, Alexa does not measure internet traffic site in an objective way. It only measures the sites that people visited by those who have their plug-in. So, one possible explanation is less people use their plugin, or more people who use their plugin don't go to blogs. That's not a true correlation to the entire internet population.

Another possibility for the lower numbers is that the chart measures in terms of percentage of their overall visits on the internet, not in actual count of visits. So, if total website usage goes up 100%, but a particular blog usage only goes up 50%, then it would register as a decrease on their chart. That is despite the fact that real blog viewing has gone up.

Best way to figure out what really happened is to get real traffic data from one of the bloggers. My guess is that traffic has continued increasing, at least for this site.

[Savage]

I've noticed the same thing. I suspect Alexa is simply indexing more sites at a faster pace, which pushes everyone's rankings down unless they're growing traffic very quickly.

During the period where Alexa shows StevePavlina.com's ranking decreasing, web traffic has been slowly but steadily increasing. October 2007 was the highest traffic month ever in terms of visitors, page views, and bandwidth. This site used almost 1TB of bandwidth last month.

Alexa is good for getting a basic idea of a site's traffic and its relative ranking to other sites. Beyond that it's less reliable.

[jamestl2]

Pay no attention to that, Alexa's stats are for the most part,....useless. Due to the fact that more people are using different web browsers, and they probably don't have the toolbar installed.

Like the others said, it's unreliable. They do not represent your site's REAL stats.

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

Alexa is good for getting a basic idea of a site's traffic and its relative ranking to other sites.

I'm going to have to disagree, it's not even that good. The metrics used to calculate it are for the most part, going extinct.

If anyone really wants to know how well their site is doing, don't worry about useless measurements such as Alexa, Google PR, or always counting your No. of Backlinks, etc. The only backlinks you should concern yourself with are ones that send your site visitors (also know as referrers in your website statistics).

[fjlee]

I think it's the incredible growth of the Blogging world.

In April, there were 70 million blogs and increasing at a rate of 5,000 per hour (source: a John Chow article)

Recently, I read 110 million blogs.

Jimson Lee
Track and Field Coach
Speed endurance . com. Success in Track & Field and Life. and
Raise Your Child . org | Advice on raising children for parents.

[jamestl2]

Originally Posted by fjlee

Recently, I read 110 million blogs.

How is that even possible?

[fjlee]

Technorati: About Us

112.8 million Blogs.

Jimson Lee
Track and Field Coach
Speed endurance . com. Success in Track & Field and Life. and
Raise Your Child . org | Advice on raising children for parents.

[Brutha]

According to compete.com both sites more than doubled their traffic in that time interval: http://siteanalytics.compete.com/www...com/?metric=uv
That chart seem to be matching what Steve is saying about his traffic.

[RichGrad]

Originally Posted by jamestl2

How is that even possible?

I think he meant he read that there are now 110 million blogs.

[Kaybee]

Hi TechnoGuyRob,

I've learned not to pay too much attention to Alexis and even Google Page Rank. I focus more on Sites that interest me. I think Steve's site is a good indicator that good content and building traffic are what really matters.

Kim

personal growth and inspiration

[shiggityjoe]

Yeah Alexa stinks.

Dosen't work for Windows Vista

or for the Opera Browser (my personal fav)

So I'm double screwed out of Alexa compatibility

[Savage]

This is StevePavlina.com's highest traffic month ever -- I'm estimating about 6.4 million page views for January -- and its Alexa rank keeps sinking. Go figure.

[jamestl2]

That's because Alexa rank is useless and very inaccurate, here's a good article on the subject:
Why You Should Completely Ignore Alexa Stats - PaulStamatiou.com

[Andreas]

Hah, I'm glad I did a search for Alexa before I opened my mouth and started a new thread.

I, too, had noticed the Alexa phenomenon:
stevepavlina.com - Traffic Details from Alexa


Thanks for filling us in, Steve! Alexa really ought to put a disclaimer like: "We aren't actually accurate" or something.

[fynyx]

1) Thanks, fjlee (11-24-2007, 09:35 AM), I just checked in with the site, and they have not changed the figure.

Originally Posted by fjlee

Technorati: About Us

112.8 million Blogs.

Jimson Lee

2) The rapidly increasing figure got me thinking about the consistent nature of cycles in human phenomenon.
So yes, blogging is in a boom period, much lie stock market or property prices on a climb.

But is this a bubble that will eventually burst (relatively soon)?
What is left after that?
And does the financial wisdom behind "Buy low sell high" have any profit for surviving bloggers then?

3) Somehow I believe the tortoise gets the last laugh.
The bloggers who continue to put out good content, regardless of the stage of the cycle that this trend is going through.
Who are not too fearful of readership figures, just consistently fretting over the relevance and value to others, of what they blog about.

I join you in thinking that Steve's doing it right here.
He started steadily as a tortoise buying low, stepping carefully but steadily.
Now he can reap the efforts at selling high, and if a bubble exists and bursts, the following he gets should continue, no fear.

Something I keep learning here and elsewhere.

[ns123]

I don't know enough about Alexa and whatnot to get into the conversation about that.

But I do know that the good tech bloggers are beginning to blog less - or just shutting down. Funny that you like Joel On Software - he's one of my heroes.

Another awesome tech blogger is Kathy Sierra. She stopped blogging about 1 year ago due to death threats. There is another really good tech blogger that has decided to stop recently too: Dare Obasanjo.

Jeff Atwood, one of my other regular blog reads talks about this here:
Coding Horror: Death Threats, Intimidation, and Blogging

Basically, once someone gets readership and a good following, they start getting enemies and death threats. I'm sure Steve has had his share.

Some people are not ready for differing views. Some people see a contrary opinion and feel threatened and start attacking the person. That person gets scared and stops. And we all lose.

One of the side effects of success and trying to make a difference (in any field, not just software development) is that people start coming out of the woodwork and attacking you personally for your views. It is sad that this happens. And with the internet, it's easier to "hide" behind the keyboard when issuing these attacks.

When humanity finally realizes that what we do to each other, we do to ourselves, well, I think it will stop then. But until then, we can only hope that our favorite bloggers can overcome their fears and soldier on. Or we can spread the love by saying what a difference they made in our own lives. (yeah, I know, small comfort, but sometimes, that's all I got)

[fynyx]

Hello -ns123- (03-15-2008, 12:11 AM),

I've been thinking about what you wrote, for these few days since you posted.

1) I keep wondering whether folks like Kathy Sierra and Dare Obasanjo really made their personal decision to quit their blogs.
Or perhaps, this is some elaborate endgame of the mind, a complex and terribly effective chessplay, of which starting levels alone already kept Steve occupied, just a while ago.
This version of game I refer to, however, manipulates people towards certain actions.

Yes, conspiracy theory all over again.
But if true, it is effective terrorism, and Steve Atwood said it before me.

Much like how almost 2 years ago, Blue Security Inc's anti-spam crusade was killed, and the company crushed, thanks to cracker PharmaMaster:

Antispam crusade backfires; Blue Security shuts down

2) Still, except for such spectacular personal attacks, I join many other readers in going mostly unnoticed, in our typical comments.

After all, popular bloggers first stop replying the too-many replies coming in, be they via email or blog.
Then they may establish forums for people to fill with talk, but being human themselves, cannot possibly track everyone else.
That is where other moderators come in.

It's already amazing that star bloggers themselves can even read everything coming in, like Wil Wheaton (ex-Wesley Crusher of Star Trek Next Generation) claims in his blog FAQ, under 'So are you going to reply to me or what?' --

WWdN: In Exile: The WWdN:iX FAQ

3) So forgive me, it's already hard imagining ever being that widely read, much less being frightened into silence after enjoying such renown.

When threatened, politicians and media celebrities get bodyguards.
They do not quit their positions of power or their creative careers.

In fact, bad publicity is often construed as great marketing.
Why is the outcome different for famous blogs?

[evelynlim]

Thanks to all who are pointing out to me that Alexa ranking is just a useless figure. The same goes for PR. Yet, so many of us who are clueless, are focusing all on the wrong set of gauge.

[Brutha]

But I do know that the good tech bloggers are beginning to blog less - or just shutting down. Funny that you like Joel On Software - he's one of my heroes.

I found Joel on Software sometime ago by clicking in Alexa on "people who like Stevepavlina.com also like ...".
Rumor has it that Kathy will start blogging again.