Sceptics and the million dollar challenge.

[Jon Tore]

I've talked to some sceptics, and read a lot of comments and such, and there's one thing they're questioning which is quite a good question. There has been promised an award of one million dollars to "anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."
So people keep asking "If they know telekinesis, if they can go out of their body" etc "why don't they go get that million?"

I know it's not such a big deal with all this money stuff... but to wipe the smiles off those narrow minded people would just be a positive thing, in my opinion.

When it comes to telekinesis, it might be hard to prove to the biggest doubters of the world with all kinds of counter theories at hand that it's real...
however, according to stories I've heard, people have done such things as astral projecting, reading a notice from far far away and thereby "proven" it.

My question is as the sceptics'. Why don't anyone go and prove it? It's obvioulsy a serious challenge, since I've heard that people have been there and pretty much failed. There are lots of opportunities, at least according to my impression of it all. What are your opinions like?

[Erin Pavlina]

We've discussed the million dollar challenge in other threads ad nauseum. Do a search and you'll see.

[Savage]

The JREF prize is fake. It's nothing but a publicity stunt for Randi. The prize money doesn't exist.

Read this to learn what happened when someone actually tried to take the challenge:
PsiPog.net : Beware Pseudo-Skepticism by Peebrain

Go ahead and try to apply for the prize, and see what happens if you still think it's legit.

And as Erin mention, the JREF scam has been discussed ad nauseum in older threads.

[Angela]

After reading the JREF's documentation and seeing a copy of the current account statement, I believe the money does indeed exist.

From FAQ:

The JREF prize fund is maintained in a way that is similar to an endowment fund. Non-profits often create reserves of assets called endowments to build up enough money to take care of the organization in the case of bad financial times, or to save up money for a project down the road, like building a new facility or starting a large new program that would require a lot of capital. Endowment funds are held in a separate Goldman Sachs account designated, "James Randi Educational Foundation Prize Account." This prevents the JREF from accidentally spending the prize money. It is never a good idea to just let large sums of money sit in a savings account for years and years, so most non-profits invest their endowment funds. The way they invest it is really not important. JREF invests in bonds, which is fine. If a claimant wins the prize, it must be awarded within ten days, as per the Challenge rules and the legally binding contract entered into when the application was signed.

I know you are going to ask, "What if the bonds cannot be easily liquidated?" If the JREF did not pay a winning claimant in a reasonable amount of time, we would be open to a lawsuit for breach of contract. The claimant will be paid. The JREF states that the funds are held in immediately negotiable bonds so that a claimant can feel at ease about the ability of the JREF to pay. The fact that the JREF will do so is going above and beyond the requirements of the law and the generally accepted practices of good, responsible non-profits. It is an enormous act of good faith on JREF's part. The million dollars exist.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

After reading the JREF's documentation and seeing a copy of the current account statement, I believe the money does indeed exist.

From FAQ:

Did you read about Sean's experience when he inquired about the specific nature of those bonds? Randi didn't give him details and basically told him to F--- off, a strange response from someone who claims to value proof so highly. Then Randi had one of his assistants make fun of Sean in their forums just for asking, including telling lies about what Sean actually wrote to them and how they replied.

I was in touch with Sean a few years ago. I agree with him that the whole thing doesn't add up, especially his suspicions that if the bonds actually exist, they may very well be worthless. I suspect they don't even exist though. After all, how hard is it to provide proof that the bonds really exist and to show what their current value is? Saying that they could get sued for lying is meaningless since they just have to guarantee they won't declare any winners. That's easy when you make the rules AND serve as judge.

Randi's response doesn't make any sense unless the prize money is fake. Since he knows he'll never have to give the money away, there's no need for an actual prize.

[seeker5]

Even the FAQ you quote uses round-about language.

It uses a lot of words and includes: "$1 million dollar exists", and elsewhere that the person will immediately receive the money from the bond. The fact that $1 million dollar exist does not mean that the winner will get that $1 Million dollar. It's funny the way they say "$1 Million exists". In truth, I can say $1 Trillion exists...because that's the truth. It doesn't mean I owe it or that I'll be able to give it to anyone .

It could instead have said "The person is guaranteed to receive $1 Million from the bonds". There is absolutely no guarantee in that FAQ of any kind of value that the person will receive from the bonds. Thus my guess is that it's still a scam.

[Savage]

Also, take note of how people who try to apply for the prize are treated. When someone applies for the prize, their app gets rejected for one technicality or another. They don't actually get tested. Then a guy named Kramer gives them a public flogging in Randi's forums.

It's a PR trick, albeit a very effective one. Randi is a stage magician, not a scientist.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

After all, how hard is it to provide proof that the bonds really exist and to show what their current value is? Saying that they could get sued for lying is meaningless since they just have to guarantee they won't declare any winners. That's easy when you make the rules AND serve as judge.

The risk for the organization is much greater than just being sued. If it were proved that they were acting fraudulently, their 501(c)3 status could be revoked; they would no longer be tax exempt.

Also, if Randi posted a fake statement on his website, I'm fairly certain that the broker, Goldman Sachs, would publicly object.

The evidence for the existence of that prize money is completely credible to me. And you may be right that Randi believes he will never have to pay it.

One reason I believe him, too, is that I have never seen any applicant come out and say, "Look, he scammed me, I would have won fair and square, let me show you (on tv, or to journalists, or some other public demonstration) that my abilities are the real deal." Why don't we hear about any such offers of public demonstration from any of the applicants? There certainly have been plenty of applicants -- one would think at least one of them could "prove" their ability outside of Randi's challenge, with less stringent requirements on them.

I would love to see someone successfully win the challenge, or even successfully challenge the challenge and offer up convincing, repeatable evidence of their skill. I think that would be great! And I also suspect that the people who would most likely be successful are the people who would least likely apply.

@Seeker5, you could say the same thing about any such reward offer. There's no guarantee except what the offerer declares is a guarantee -- for anything. JREF is public and very vocal about their promise to award a million bucks in a timely manner to anyone who passes the test -- and the applicant declares what the test will be! So far, as far as I know, no one has successfully shown that the JREF challenge is a scam. If he were shown to be faking the money or scamming potential applicants by avoiding paying a legitimate prize, he would be making himself pretty vulnerable financially and operationally.

I find Randi far more credible than Peebrain in this matter.

[cylon]

I remember reading that a while ago, and if you read that guy's site, and download the web archive of his interactions with the people at the JREF about his concern over the money, to me it shows some of the rigidity and funtamentalism of the skeptic mindset.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

. When someone applies for the prize, their app gets rejected for one technicality or another.

Like what, for instance? I reviewed a bunch of the applications, and couldn't find any that got rejected on a mere technicality.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

Like what, for instance? I reviewed a bunch of the applications, and couldn't find any that got rejected on a mere technicality.

There's a list of applicants here:
Challenge Applications - JREF Forum

Most threads seem to be about quacks and nonsensical stuff, but I couldn't find anyone that actually got tested for anything. The only ones that seemed close to legit looked like they were given the run-around until they gave up or were told explicitly to go away. And it's rather obvious they treat applicants with deep disdain.

I didn't check every thread though, but did you see any that actually got tested?

[seeker5]

Originally Posted by Angela

@Seeker5, you could say the same thing about any such reward offer.

Not really. I've seen plenty of reward offer that spells out exactly when and how much cash they will get. A lot of the $1 Million prizes I've seen have fine prints that says something like "Winner will get $50,000 a year for 20 years". That is actually worth only $574,322 in today's money (I calculated it using my financial calculator). However, they can state big and wide that the winner will get $1 Million, and the fine little prints that almost nobody reads can say what I quoted, and they are legally ok.

The fact that JREF doesn't even say the winner will receive $1 Million immediately from the bonds means to me he isn't willing to guarantee that in legal language that would hold up in court. The bonds could be worth $1 Million dollar.......in 99 years. Using my financial calculator again, I calculate that a 99 year bond with no annual bond payment which receives $1 Million dollar at the end of the 99 year period is worth a grand total of $79.82 in today's money.

So, for $80, I too can buy a $1Million bond that is given to the winner of a contest. Wanna join my contest?

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

Most threads seem to be about quacks and nonsensical stuff, but I couldn't find anyone that actually got tested for anything. The only ones that seemed close to legit looked like they were given the run-around until they gave up or were told explicitly to go away. And it's rather obvious they treat applicants with deep disdain.

No, no one has passed a preliminary test. I have reviewed several of them, and I don't see anything that looks like "run-around." It looks to me like they usually do negotiations to find a "protocol" that is acceptable to both the JREF and the applicant, and that seems reasonable to me. The applicant must follow the instructions, first of all, and it seems like that's the hardest obstacle of people to hurdle. "Kramer" sounds pretty reasonable to me in his explaining this to people over and over and over again. In fact, it sounds to me like he goes out of his way to get someone to the point of even getting to that stage.

He may be insidiously nasty in private messages for all I know, but on the public forum he is consistently polite, reasonable, and even helpful.

I've looked at, I'd guess, 50 or so of the applications and can't find anything shady, unreasonable, or run-aroundish.

Let me know, anyone, if you find anything like that.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

The risk for the organization is much greater than just being sued. If it were proved that they were acting fraudulently, their 501(c)3 status could be revoked; they would no longer be tax exempt.

Also, if Randi posted a fake statement on his website, I'm fairly certain that the broker, Goldman Sachs, would publicly object.

There's virtually no risk since all they have to do is make sure they never declare a winner. And they can do that indefinitely.

They may have a Goldman Sachs account for general funds. Lots of non-profits have investment accounts. Doesn't mean the fund is actually worth anything. And why would Goldman Sachs say anything about it? it's not like they're free to verify how much one of their accounts is worth w/o the account holder's permission.

I can claim I have a million dollars in some bank too. The bank won't do anything about it.

The evidence for the existence of that prize money is completely credible to me. And you may be right that Randi believes he will never have to pay it.

In that case, I have a million-dollar account with Goldman Sachs too.

Convinced?

That's as much proof of the funds as Randi provided.

One reason I believe him, too, is that I have never seen any applicant come out and say, "Look, he scammed me, I would have won fair and square, let me show you (on tv, or to journalists, or some other public demonstration) that my abilities are the real deal." Why don't we hear about any such offers of public demonstration from any of the applicants? There certainly have been plenty of applicants -- one would think at least one of them could "prove" their ability outside of Randi's challenge, with less stringent requirements on them.

I haven't been able to connect with anyone who's even been tested for the JREF prize. Have you?

I've seen plenty of in-person demonstrations of psychic abilities. Heck, I've talked one-on-one with several top psychics, including Lisa Williams, John Holland, and Colette Baron-Reid. I've gone to their workshops as well. I've seen them demo their abilities many times.

What convinced me most though, even beyond seeing other people demo their abilities, was when I learned how to do it myself. It's one thing to see someone else do it. It's another thing entirely when you're the one channeling info from a dead guy you can see right in front of you, relaying specific details to people you just met, and tears are streaming down their faces as you're sharing accurate details you couldn't possibly know.

It's hard to doubt that such abilities exist when you work on developing your own psychic skills, gain some direct experience, and deepen your understanding. You also learn why it's a bad idea to try to convince skeptics of anything they aren't ready for.

I would love to see someone successfully win the challenge, or even successfully challenge the challenge and offer up convincing, repeatable evidence of their skill. I think that would be great! And I also suspect that the people who would most likely be successful are the people who would least likely apply.

You won't see anyone win the JREF prize. But if you want to see convincing evidence, that's a different story. It's within your ability to manifest that when you're ready for it. If you go down that path, however, it's going to lead to significant changes in how you see the world.

I find Randi far more credible than Peebrain in this matter.

Did you ever communicate with either of them directly? I've had contact with Sean but not with Randi. I trust Sean though and see no reason he'd lie about his experiences.

[Angela]

Seeker5, I understand that you are unshakably skeptical about the existence of the prize money.

But it doesn't mean much, because there don't seem to be any actual paranormal practitioners for whom that is a problem. I highly doubt that PP's are staying away from the challenge in droves because, although they have every confidence that they would win, they don't enter because they "know" that it's a stacked deck.

On the contrary, if a person with paranormal ability is completely confident of successfully completing a reasonable challenge, I would think that he or she would enjoy debunking the debunker -- exposing Randi as the fraud that you say he is. So far, no one has successfully done that, but many have shown themselves to be, as Steve calls them, quacks and nonsensical.

Have you gone through any of those applications? Please refer me to any you find reasonably non-quacky or non-nonsensical.

Sylvia Browne agreed FIVE YEARS ago, on the Larry King show, to do the challenge, but she hasn't gotten around to it yet, somehow.

I would LOVE to see a successful applicant!

By the way James Randi has exposed fraudulent "healers" who have taken a lot of unsuspecting believers for a ride.

[seeker5]

Have you gone through any of those applications? Please refer me to any you find reasonably non-quacky or nonsensical.

No, and I don't intend to. I was simply providing the financial and legal analysis of the FAQ about the truth of the reward money. To me, if the reward is a scam, then that means the contest is a scam.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

It's hard to doubt that such abilities exist when you work on developing your own abilities, gain some direct experience, and deepen your understanding. You also learn why it's a bad idea to try to convince skeptics of anything they aren't ready for.

Just for the record, I don't doubt that "paranormal" abilities exist -- as I mentioned, I would love to see a convincing demonstration. I'm not a skeptic that remarkable abilities exist, and I've even experienced some things myself that have me feeling very open to the unexplainable, and I myself don't require a demonstration of it.

At the same time, though, I see no convincing evidence that Randi would reneg if someone met the standards of the challenge he sets forth, which is to show that someone can do what he or she claims he or she can do. The applicants themselves agree to the test protocols -- and they still haven't, so far, met the standards they themselves have set.

Did you ever communicate with either of them directly?

No, but neither have I communicated with President Obama or an actual Birther, and yet I know whom I find the more credible in the matter of Obama's citizenship.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by seeker5

No, and I don't intend to. I was simply providing the financial and legal analysis of the FAQ about the truth of the reward money. To me, if the reward is a scam, then to me that means the contest is a scam.

To me, it looks like there are lots of people who are trying to scam the contest, not the other way around.

A lot of applicants just "go away" not because Kramer tells them to, it doesn't look like, but because they realize their scam won't fly.

[Angela]

By the way, did Peabrain tell you what his paranormal ability was?

[Savage]

Heck I'd consider applying for the $1M myself if I thought the challenge was real and scientific and not a fake publicity stunt. I don't need the money, but I think it would be a fun experience.

Erin has also said that she'd find it interesting to be tested by a legit scientist or researcher. She's also been interested in working with police to help solve crimes, but so far that's been mostly a dead end. She did help locate a dead body on one occasion though, which was found right where she said it would be, even though the people searching for the body told her that location was extremely unlikely, so it was days before they looked there and found it.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

By the way, did Peabrain tell you what his paranormal ability was?

Yes... well, at least one of them. It was in private communication though, so I won't share it publicly. He's probably written about his experiences somewhere on his website though.

He shares some how-to info on his website, but like Randi he had problems attracting an endless supply of goofballs.

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

To me, it looks like there are lots of people who are trying to scam the contest, not the other way around.

A lot of applicants just "go away" not because Kramer tells them to, it doesn't look like, but because they realize their scam won't fly.

Like attracts like.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Steve Pavlina

Heck I'd consider applying for the $1M myself if I thought the challenge was real and scientific and not a fake publicity stunt. I don't need the money, but I think it would be a fun experience.

Erin has also said that she'd find it interesting to be tested by a legit scientist or researcher. She's also been interested in working with police to help solve crimes, but so far that's been a dead end.

So, why not take that on despite being pretty sure it's a fake publicity stunt? Why not debunk the debunker, and have a fun experience while you're at it? As high a profile as you have, it would be quite the media event, you would have a lot of people, including me, pulling for you and going out of our way to keep the rules honest, and expose the JREF if they pulled a fast one on you. You could make quite an impact!

Why not?

"so far that's been a dead end" -- was that pun intended? Again, as high a profile as Erin has, I would think a legit scientist or researcher, someone Erin trusts, would jump at the chance to do a demonstration -- I think that would be great. And I think it's lovely that she wants to make a difference for people by solving crimes.

[Angela]

If you were going to do that, what kind of preliminary test do you think you might design for yourself? How about Erin, if she were tempted?

[Erin Pavlina]

From what other top psychics have told me, they have submitted themselves to scientific testing with real scientists. I know Allison Dubois, John Edward and John Holland, and I think Lisa Williams if I remember correctly, have all been tested at an instutute whose name escapes me at the moment. They were found to have abilities beyond what coincidence could predict. They were tested under very strict circumstances. Teh results were publisehd, but not many people would hear about that unless they were deeply interested and looked it up.

The idea of getting a million dollars for publicly proving a paranormal ability sure sounds nice. I guarantee you though that if I had a paranormal ability like telekinesis I wouldn't necessarily want the gov't knowing about it and I'd keep a low profile on that. I'm also under the understanding that if Randi can explain your "ability" any other way than what you claim it is, that he won't give you the money.

I also saw an interview with him on Larry King where he stated that he was no longer accepting challenges, and instead going after the big shots in the industry, because it was costing him too much money to test every tom dick and harry who wanted to give the test a go.

I believe Randi serves a great purpose in educating people about those who are trying to scam and fraud innocent people. But I also think his challenge is a publicity stunt that keeps his name in the public eye.

[seeker5]

Originally Posted by Angela

To me, it looks like there are lots of people who are trying to scam the contest, not the other way around.

That may be true. That doesn't take the truth that the reward prize is written in very fuzzy legal language despite what it seems for years people have asked it to be clearer to detail exactly what is won.

A contest is defined by the reward that is awarded. Any person can say "I have a contest, come prove to me you're a psychic." In fact, many people say something similar to that "Come prove to me you're not the fraud I believe you to be". Those people are ignored. The fact that this guy offered "$1 million" is what made this contest newsworthy and attracted a lot of attention. If he had simply offered "$10,080", it wouldn't have attracted anywhere this level of attention or interest.

So, since he refuse to clearly lay out the terms of the reward, and because a contest is defined by what is won, then the contest is a shame.

[Angela]

Originally Posted by Erin Pavlina

From what other top psychics have told me, they have submitted themselves to scientific testing with real scientists. I know Allison Dubois, John Edward and John Holland, and I think Lisa Williams if I remember correctly, have all been tested at an instutute whose name escapes me at the moment. They were found to have abilities beyond what coincidence could predict. They were tested under very strict circumstances. Teh results were publisehd, but not many people would hear about that unless they were deeply interested and looked it up.

I will look for those, thanks.

The idea of getting a million dollars for publicly proving a paranormal ability sure sounds nice. I guarantee you though that if I had a paranormal ability like telekinesis I wouldn't necessarily want the gov't knowing about it and I'd keep a low profile on that. I'm also under the understanding that if Randi can explain your "ability" any other way than what you claim it is, that he won't give you the money.

To be sure. I read "Firestarter."

But, no Randi gives applicants the opportunity to demonstrate a paranormal ability, and agrees that if he is somehow "tricked" -- that is, if it's found out later that there is a natural world explanation, you still get the mil. It's said over and over again on his site. But it seems reasonable to not accept certain natural world or untestable occurrences that people claim are psychic phenomena, like cloud-busting or "making people happy."

I also saw an interview with him on Larry King where he stated that he was no longer accepting challenges, and instead going after the big shots in the industry, because it was costing him too much money to test every tom dick and harry who wanted to give the test a go.

That makes sense to me. I'm especially interested in seeing Sylvia Browne keep her word. If Randi is a scammer, then she's in a perfect position to expose him.

I believe Randi serves a great purpose in educating people about those who are trying to scam and fraud innocent people. But I also think his challenge is a publicity stunt that keeps his name in the public eye.

May be. I don't see anything wrong with that, any more than I see anything wrong with writing highly provocative and controversial blog posts!

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Angela

So, why not take that on despite being pretty sure it's a fake publicity stunt? Why not debunk the debunker, and have a fun experience while you're at it? As high a profile as you have, it would be quite the media event, you would have a lot of people, including me, pulling for you and going out of our way to keep the rules honest, and expose the JREF if they pulled a fast one on you. You could make quite an impact!

Why not?

I can't debunk him by entering a frame he controls. I'd only end up choding myself and legitimizing him. It would be like Wolf 359. Regardless of my abilities, I'm guaranteed to lose.

To emerge victorious all they'd have to do is keep me stuck in application technicality hell indefinitely. The more time I invest in trying to make the application acceptable to them, the better it is for them. Then when I realize they'll never accept my app or testing protocol, and I decide to cut my losses due to how much of my time they're wasting, they'll claim victory and use my name for publicity purposes. They'll never let me make it to the testing phase -- too risky.

I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

"so far that's been a dead end" -- was that pun intended? Again, as high a profile as Erin has, I would think a legit scientist or researcher, someone Erin trusts, would jump at the chance to do a demonstration -- I think that would be great. And I think it's lovely that she wants to make a difference for people by solving crimes.

Not originally intended as a pun, but I noticed the pun after I wrote it and decided to leave it.

So where are all these scientists and researchers? I've never met one, at least not that I know of. I don't want to waste time with quacks and goofballs, but a legit respected scientist with a reputation for objectivity would be fun to work with. If you know of someone who's doing serious research in this field, send them our way.

[Erin Pavlina]

When I was in college my boyfriend and I went to see the Amazing Randi give a presentation at our school. I thought he was awesome! But he was doing his magician stuff at the time and he spoke just a little bit about exposing frauds. As a magician, he said, he could easily replicate their results, so he said if he could replicate them using non-paranormal means then that meant a person could not prove they were using a real paranormal method. So he put the burden of proof on them (which might be fair, I don't know) but it meant that if you were actually using a paranormal skill that he could also happen to replicate using non paranormal means then it somehow meant the paranormal version was negated. Why can't it be both? Why can't there be a paranormal explanation as well as a replicated explanation.

When we got to my car after the meeting, my back windshield had been broken. Someone must have come along and broke it or something. It was a big bummer. But maybe it was an omen...

[Savage]

Originally Posted by Erin Pavlina

I also saw an interview with him on Larry King where he stated that he was no longer accepting challenges, and instead going after the big shots in the industry, because it was costing him too much money to test every tom dick and harry who wanted to give the test a go.

That is consistent. He doesn't gain as much PR-wise by having unknowns try to apply. It's of greater PR benefit to him to troll the celebs.