|11-05-2010, 04:00 PM||#1 (permalink)|
Join Date: Dec 2007
How I Threw Hope Out The Window and Used Data to Build an Empire
This is my first new essay since my wife got sick, I'm happy to be on the bandwagon again!
How I Threw Hope Out The Window and Used Data to Build an Empire >>
|11-05-2010, 04:56 PM||#3 (permalink)|
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Manhattan, NY
The point I got was less about data and more about planning ahead when you're not emotionally invested in a situation. The major danger in making your choices in the heat of the moment is that you're too influenced by your short term perspective-when you're calmer and more detached, you can take a longer view and make better decisions ahead of time.
Steve writes about this in his book. There are also several other examples where this applies, such as:
-Investing. Almost any automated system will do better than an average human investor because the average human gets emotional when there's market turbulence and makes mistakes.
-Major changes in financial circumstances, like a windfall. Planning ahead for an inheritance or winning the lottery means you're much more likely to use your money the way you most want, rather than get caught up in the moment.
-Relationships. I don't think I need to explain how people can get emotionally charged and make bad decisions in the heat of the moment-both from positive and negative emotions :P.
-Haircuts. Haven't you heard that you shouldn't choose a hair cut while you're angry?
But the point of the article is definitely very valid-when we make our decisions ahead of time and stick to them, we're much more likely to make the correct choices.
|11-05-2010, 08:31 PM||#6 (permalink)|
Join Date: Sep 2008
I liked the exponential growth diagram.
I can recall seeing a video of a seminar by Eben Pagan where he drew a diagram exactly like that, and he said something like "in all of my experience, every success I have seen has looked something like this" referring to a long period of very low results, followed by a huge surge in results or income or success of any kind.
So, me thinks you are correct.
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