Experiment in Intention Manifestation Live

[John Freestone]

I was just thinking how strange probability theory is. I couldn't decide for a moment whether the result of this poll (if pure chance were the only condition) would be an even line with every number of heads equally represented or a distribution curve with 5 as the maximum, tapering off towards the 0 and 10. I'm pretty sure it's the latter now, but I almost posted to ask.

One thing that seems weird to a lot of people is that if you've tossed a coin 9 times and got 9 heads, the 10th toss is still as likely to be a head as a tail. Of course, it's obvious when I put it like that, but not when we're faced with an increasing 'score' of one kind of result. This is a big part of decisions we make in situations like gambling. Black ten times at the routlette wheel - my God I'm gonna put my money on Red! What is that guy doing putting a thousand on Black? He's an idiot or he's got some insider knowledge! Nope. Still 50-50. On the other hand, maybe he's figuring that there's a run and it could be going to continue the same.

If you toss a coin 10 times, the most probable outcome is 5 heads and 5 tails. If you do it a million times, the most probable outcome is 500,000 of each. Something in the way we humans think about that makes us believe that the more of one we've been getting, the more of the other we 'should' get later: otherwise how will 'probability' balance things out to evens stevens in the long run? Of course, 'probability' isn't balancing anything out: nothing is keeping score (except onlookers).

Alternatively, as in the roulette situation, we decide that the pattern so far will continue. If someone's tossed 999,999 heads, I'm certainly going to put my money on another head, but only because I reckon it's quite clearly fixed.

The usual scientific view of the world includes the idea that events don't communicate with other events over time without some material cause, so 'the score' in a game of chance like that is only a human concept. The next time the coin is tossed, nature doesn't take account of what happened before or might happen after. I vaguely remember some weird science suggesting that at quantum levels that might not hold, but I couldn't say much more than that. It seems pretty safe to say no-one has proved it, and if the effect exists it's far too small to make any difference at the casino.

[John Freestone]

Come on you tossers!

Bumping my own thread


(giggidy)

[pianoperformer]

I bet if I roll a die, I will get a number less than 7.

Unfortunately, I neither have a die nor a coin.

[Wax Frog]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

I bet if I roll a die, I will get a number less than 7.

Unfortunately, I neither have a die nor a coin.

"Waxy needs a new pair of shoes!"

[wolfshadow]

"Waxy needs a new pair of shoes!"

Wax if I'm not mistaken did you just quote Harlem Nights?

[Wax Frog]

Originally Posted by wolfshadow

Wax if I'm not mistaken did you just quote Harlem Nights?

I wasn't thinking of any particular movie, actually, I just knew it was a term related to shooting craps. I'll elaborate via PM, don't want to 'hijack' any threads, even unintentionally.

[John Freestone]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

I bet if I roll a die, I will get a number less than 7.

Unfortunately, I neither have a die nor a coin.

Less than 7 - ha! - took a while, but I got it eventually. I'm staring at it thinking I need to stop people confusing coins and dice or this experiment will go seriously wrong, I'm thinking that's impressive to know the singular of dice. I'm thinking "dime" would work. I'm thinking you could use a die and just allocate even numbers as heads and odd numbers as tails. I'm thinking what kind of world are we living in when someone has internet access, but doesn't have a coin?!

Pity I didn't get educated on craps and/or movies, Wax Frog, and as for hijacking, really, as far as I'm concerned this thread is standing at the roadside at a particularly convenient place to stop, with its thumb out, wearing nothing but a wet teeshirt and high heels, blowing gum and carrying a sign saying "Hijack and bump, please".

I'm not sure why it says in the guidelines to mark posts if they're not suitable for work. Shouldn't people be working at work anyway?

[pianoperformer]

I am glad you got it, or else I'd have to question whether you've been doing too much philosophizing and not enough intellectualizing, thereby turning your brain to mush.

Oh, I'm thinking the singular of dice is nothing. I've been using data in its proper, plural context quite a bit recently, regardless how weird it may sound. Worse, i've been using datum as the singular.

Oh, yeah, I have money, like almost 100,000 pennies in the bank, but I'm not going to the bank to withdraw one. Plus they'll want to give me something useless like a 20 or something.

[Wax Frog]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

Oh, I'm thinking the singular of dice is nothing. I've been using data in its proper, plural context quite a bit recently, regardless how weird it may sound. Worse, i've been using datum as the singular.

NERD!!! NERD!!!

Actually I have no room to talk, as I'm more than a little of a spelling nerd myself...

[John Freestone]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

I am glad you got it, or else I'd have to question whether you've been doing too much philosophizing and not enough intellectualizing, thereby turning your brain to mush.

Oh, there's a difference!

Oh, I'm thinking the singular of dice is nothing.

No it's 'die', you were right the first time.

I have money, like almost 100,000 pennies in the bank, but I'm not going to the bank to withdraw one.

Bragging skinflint.

[pianoperformer]

I know it's die, but I'm saying it's much more known than the fact that data is a plural.

[moonrambler]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

I know it's die, but I'm saying it's much more known than the fact that data is a plural.

Or media!

[John Freestone]

Originally Posted by pianoperformer

I know it's die, but I'm saying it's much more known than the fact that data is a plural.

Gotcha! That was my little joke, which you failed to get. Ok, it wasn't very funny and quite obscure. You said "Oh, I'm thinking the singular of dice is nothing.", which would just be really stupid: two dice, one nothing.

Jeezus - nerdz-R-US or what?

@ moonrambler, yeah, 'media' is the plural of 'medium' ...except maybe when it relates to multiple psychics.

I don't know about fora - sounds ridiculous and I say forums.

This is blatant self-inflation of my post...


giggedy giggedy

[pianoperformer]

I've also wondered about the plural of forum...fora is technically proper isn't it? I've seen very very very few people use it before, but they certainly have.

Oh yeah, what's the plural of medium when it is a psychic medium...hrm

Um....I am searching for a way to tie it into this thread, and I can get nothing, except that the plural of coin is coins. Maybe I can manifest some coins?

Edit: Oh, yeah, I totally missed that joke. It seems so obvious if I reread it. I'll manifest some humor, too.

[liverpool footballer]

First, i'd like to clarify i didn't use coins but rather, a namecard that when i flung in the air, seemed to land on both sides quite evenly.

I tried the experiment after reading impaul's post and tried visualizing the "heads" part of the namecard. I got two heads, then three tails, then two more heads. And then i remembered that paul decided he didn't care on his last 4 throws and i had the same mentality with the last three throws. I didn't visualize hard on forcing it to be heads but simply visualized heads and thought "it doesn't really matter if its heads or tails". I got three more heads to make it 7 heads three tails

Its kind of interesting because just minutes before the experiment, i was thinking that the problem most people with in I-M is that rather than trusting the process and letting it do its work without becoming attached to its outcome and doing it just for fun but instead, people try to put an expectation on what its supposed to do and also try to force it to work and to see results