Global warming, human or not?

[tropicality]

Having broken out of the 'being controlled by the media' lifestyle and becoming aware of everything going on around, I've always thought to myself that the 'global warming' issue is just a natural earth cycle.

I then came across this video: What we are not being told about the climate - Google Video

And while doing a research assignment for college I came across: David Suzuki News♥November 10, 2006:♥Stern warning changes the climate debate

Now I agree that it is a good thing to reduce emissions for our HEALTH... Is the whole global warming issue just that? To reduce emissions to better our health, while providing more reasons to tax the citizens, and promote new industries? (By making it cheaper to just use more efficient technology than to use pollution creating technology and be overly taxed for it?) And the earth is getting warm from a natural cycle that will pass like it has in the past?

Personally, that is my view. But I thought I'd put it out here for other 'concious' people to examine.

What do you think?

(I figured this would be the right place to post this, because the greatest effect emissions has is on our health)

[topher1181]

I haven't been able to understand why global warming, due to human causes, is still being questioned.

Most scientists agree that global warming is due to human causes. I would also add that whether you indifferent towards, love, or hate Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (his documentary on global warming) is excellent.

Here's one stat that stands out to me:
Of 928 articles dealing with climate change in scientific journals in the past 10years, 0% had any doubt as to the cause of global warming.

Of 636 articles in the press about climate change over the past 10 years, 53% cast doubt.

I'll go with the scientific journals because that's where the studies are published, and it supports what I have read myself. I have seen web sites that try to argue global warming is not caused by humans, but I haven't been able to find many that use credible sources that either rely on studies funded by oil and energy companies or have a mission to promote a "conservative" agenda.

[topher1181]

Just wanted to add one thing about that video. It was produced in cooperation with Friends of Science. Friends of Science is really a cover for the oil industry according to sourcewatch. So don't take too much info from there.

Friends of Science - SourceWatch

[TechnoGuyRob]

YES! It's working! I intended warmer global weather so I wouldn't have to travel so far for vacation.

Hooray intention-manifestation!

[Shaden]

TechnoGuyRob, you should be careful what you wish for

What I don't understand is how the government make all doom and gloom about the situation of global warming and then go ahead and do absolutely nothing about it. That confuses me - and proves we have incompetent world leaders. Oh my what a surprise...

[Scott Bird]

Originally Posted by tropicality

Having broken out of the 'being controlled by the media' lifestyle and becoming aware of everything going on around, I've always thought to myself that the 'global warming' issue is just a natural earth cycle.

My own view (short version) is that global warming is a natural Earth cycle - and would happen in any case, but that we are accelerating things by our actions. Instead of happening at some distant point in the future, it's happening now.

As for 'careful what you wish for', it's forecast for 38C (100F) here tomorrow, and it isn't even summer yet. There's also talk of snow arriving here in the next few weeks, and it hasn't snowed here for about 170 years. Extremely unusual weather.

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Shaden

What I don't understand is how the government make all doom and gloom about the situation of global warming and then go ahead and do absolutely nothing about it. That confuses me - and proves we have incompetent world leaders. Oh my what a surprise...

I don't think they're incompetent, I think it's a matter of time scales. Political careers are measured in years, climate change is measured in decades.

It would take a brave politician to say "This will be a huge problem in 30-50 years, so we're going to raise your taxes and start dealing with it". It absolutely needs to be done, but any politician who does it risks being voted out, because the voters' concerns tend to be more immediate.

Politicians realise that there's political points in making noise about climate change, but that to actually do something about it would require unpopular changes (eg. look how much people whinge when petrol goes up 20c - can you imagine the career of a politician who taxed it?). So they just make the noise.

Politicians will fix the environment if they can do it without disrupting the economy. But they can't, because the economy is unsustainable ; it draws too heavily on finite, damaging resources.

The problem can't be fixed at the level at which it was created, but people are still thinking at that level.

[TheColonel]

Yes, but there are other much greater forces contributing. Our poles have begun to shift, and our planet is going through growing pains. This is a natural (and overdue) occurence.

This relatively fast magnetic decay - it must weaken substantially before a full polarity reversal - will take perhaps a few hundred more years. And during that time, we are less protected from solar radiation. And you can guess what that means.

This phenomenon is real, and although it is largely ignored in the press, is a huge contributing factor to all kinds of planetary changes. Us humans? Yeah, we aren't helping global warming much. But if polarity shift is an elephant, we're a gnat on the elephant's @ss.

[Brutha]

This phenomenon is real, and although it is largely ignored in the press, is a huge contributing factor to all kinds of planetary changes.

Whats your source?
Preferable one which numbers on how much this phenomenon does? Every scientist that I heard of that work in that field thinks that this phenomenon isn't fast enough to have effects in our lifetime.

[transcendence]

Originally Posted by Scott Bird

As for 'careful what you wish for', it's forecast for 38C (100F) here tomorrow, and it isn't even summer yet. There's also talk of snow arriving here in the next few weeks, and it hasn't snowed here for about 170 years. Extremely unusual weather.

We (Melbourne) had a 36C (97F) degree day in September - start of Spring. Last week we had a 13C (55F) degree day and yesterday it was 36C (97F). Melbourne is not known for its consistent weather, but this is a bit ridiculous.

Last year I was living in Margaret River, WA, and they had the coldest summer in living memory. I went on an indigenous tour in Autumn and the Aboriginal guide was showing a heap of spring time plants that were still out.

Last year on the other side of the country Melbourne had one of the hottest summers on record.

What I've read suggests that some the change is due to natural cycles in the weather (and we've just come out of an unusually consistent period), but I don't think it can be denied the effect humans are also having.

I take a 2.5 (250km) hour train trip to my parents place through country side almost devoid of trees that 200 years ago would have been 250km of forest. Every morning I ingest lung fulls of exhaust as I ride to work. Some days I can look out the windows and the distant buildings are veiled in smog (not often luckily). I've lived in a country where I could count the number of days you could see the horizon through smoke on one hand.

In Australia, with such a low population density, a lot of the pollution is hidden from us - big pollution industry is located in remote places.

I find it astonishing to hear that some people can't see that our actions would / could effect the planet.

[RedPanda]

Originally Posted by Scott Bird

My own view (short version) is that global warming is a natural Earth cycle - and would happen in any case, but that we are accelerating things by our actions. Instead of happening at some distant point in the future, it's happening now.

Except that we're adding inputs over and above the natural cycle, risking pushing the system into a state of runaway* positive feedback from which it will not recover for hundreds of thousands of years.

TheColonel, you are aware that hundreds of years is a long time compared to the timescale for predicted significant effects of human-induced climate change, aren't you. And that the current decline may not be presaging a reversal at all.

The present strong deterioration corresponds to a 10-15% decline over the last 150 years and has accelerated in the past several years; however, geomagnetic intensity has declined almost continuously from a maximum 35% above the modern value achieved approximately 2000 years ago. The rate of decrease and the current strength are within the normal range of variation, as shown by the record of past magnetic fields recorded in rocks.

One should note that no one knows if field decay will continue in the future.
...
Some speculate that a greatly diminished magnetic field during a reversal period will expose the surface of the earth to a substantial and potentially damaging increase in cosmic radiation. However, Homo erectus and their ancestors certainly survived many previous reversals. There is no uncontested evidence that a magnetic field reversal has ever caused any biological extinctions. A possible explanation is that the solar wind may induce a sufficient magnetic field in the Earth's ionosphere to shield energetic particles even in the absence of the Earth's normal magnetic field

From here



*Yes, I know that positive feedback = runaway

[songwriter]

It is not clear if it caused by the Earth itself or by human activity. Possibly the two things are causes but we don't know which one is the major cause.

Anyway, this is going faster that no-one imagined... !.

In Spain we use to have cold weather from October on. And now we go to the streets with just one shirt. Sometimes I have to look twice at the calendar "November 24th" ?. I feel like if someone is joking on me or us.

We use to have December and January as our most cold months.
There's only 7 days left to December, and the sun is shining... I don't understand a thing.

[fourthdan]

You know the wierdest part? I live in a desert out here in the middle east and every year it gets colder and colder

not that i mind... could be because the local municpalities are planting more and more trees? But i have a gut feel it's gotta do with the shift in the global weather patterns...

[Serafin]

Here in Switzerland the glaciers are melting quickly and the permafrost in the alps is no longer a trustful solid ground for buildings. Just to protect our roads from falling rocks due to the higher temperature in our country costs billions of dollars!

I think there should also be another reason to reduce our oil consumption. Simply because fossil fuels are limited resources. And I don't think it's right to burn all the oil or coal in just three or four generations. Maybe our next generations would have a much better use for the oil than just to put it into a tank.

Unfortunately people only change their habits if they have to pay much more for the same. This is the negative side and it takes some time to find a new balance. On the other hand, higher costs for fossil products opens a wide field for complete new solutions. A lot of smart companies in Europe and Far East have already started to develop new energy saving products and thereby created many new jobs. And this business is growing rapidly!
And everybody who wants to participate has already to be quick to catch the rolling train!
I'd like to ask you guys from the US: Are you (and your government) fully aware of this new global trend? Is this an issue, the positive effects on the economy and not only the short-term costs?

[TheColonel]

Originally Posted by Brutha

Whats your source?
Preferable one which numbers on how much this phenomenon does? Every scientist that I heard of that work in that field thinks that this phenomenon isn't fast enough to have effects in our lifetime.

Nova.

You don't expect me to actually read the research, now do you?

[KevinG]

1. Show me proof that global warming exists and that we are not simply viewing normal climate shifts up AND down of the Earth.

2. Show me proof that "global warming" is man-made.

3. Tell me why temperatures on Mars are rising, yet there are no SUV's or CFC's there.

4. Tell me exactly how much temperatures have increased in the last 100 years.

Tell me those things if you're a supporter of the global warming religion and then we can talk about why I believe global warming is a liberal attack on capitalism.

[Trina]

I think it is very arrogant of humans to assume that they are so powerful they could change the earth all by themselves, and very naive of humans to think we have absolutely no effect on the earth at all.

[stephencp]

Assuming that it's happening, I"m not sure that I'd leave it up to the government to try to stop it, or handle it's effects. Check out the below links for the libertarian perspective (on how to handle the consequences, not deny that it's happening)

LP News January 1999 - Libertarian Solutions: Non-governmental solutions to the "problem" of global warming
Reason Foundation - Reason Roundtable: Global Warming

Stephen
Power-Book Library: Free personal development, success, inspiration and motivational classics

[aussieNickuss]

Originally Posted by transcendence

We (Melbourne) had a 36C (97F) degree day in September - start of Spring. Last week we had a 13C (55F) degree day and yesterday it was 36C (97F). Melbourne is not known for its consistent weather, but this is a bit ridiculous.

Yes....I'm in Ballarat (Vic) and a Wednesday about a fortnight ago it snowed...heavily. Then on the Friday...it was 36 degrees! It was such a rapid change in temparature.

Just last week, we had very very strong winds...I lost my garden shed and some people lost there roofs as well as 8 out of 10 trees losing a branch or two. I've been here ten years and never seen weather like it. Lake Wendouree in Ballarat is just a few puddles here and there and many dams and other lakes round the place have dried up completely.

The earth may have a natural cycle of warming up and cooling down...but to show signs of such a rapid change is scary and not natural.

[topher1181]

Originally Posted by Listener

Is that a stat from the documentary? I'm looking forward to seeing it. From the couple of books I've read by scientists (not economists, not political persons, not gadflies) it's obvious that humans have affected the climate.

Yes, those stats came from the documentary. While the documentary isn't the most exciting film to watch, I do think it's educational and important. One of best things Al Gore does in this is address what the skeptics say, and point out why they are wrong, backed up with data. Meanwhile, I still can't find a study that doubts humans are the cause that isn't based on funding by oil and energy companies or a group pushing so-called conservative interests as their agenda. I'm no scientist, so I have to trust the experts here; to me, that means I believe humans are a significant cause of global warming.

The point is, whether or not anyone believes humans are the cause or not, if it continues as it is, we're going to have some major problems. Maybe we won't see the worst effects in our lifetimes, but that doesn't mean we don't have a responsibility to do something for future generations. And I would rather it be that humans are the cause; at least then we have some control over the matter and we can do something about it.

There are a number of things we could easily do:
- We could start by raising vehicle fuel standards in the US to something more in line with what other developed countries have (ours are very low).
- My office and my school's labs leave their computers on all night. Why?
- Replace light bulbs with compact fluorescent light bulbs. They cost a little more, but are much more efficient and last years longer.
- As needed, replace appliances with more energy-efficient models.

It's not too difficult for one person to do their part, and if enough do their part, it'll make a major impact.

[dorothy hanna]

My view is that we are wittnessing the rebirth of paradise. The old earth, and old world mentality, and interrpretation of events is passing away.

Quite naturally, those of the old world, and old world mentality will be fearful.
The new earth is unfolding before our very eyes. Those of this new world, and mentality are joyful, as their deliverance is near.

The meek shall inheret the earth.

[Wanderer]

KevinG

Seeing is believing, but if i went on that basis Santa Clause exists, as I have seen him before, as does the easter bunny, but I've never seen president Bush or Tony Blair, maybe their fictional too???

[RT Wolf]

Stanford on iTunes U

There was a podcast called Harmonizing the Needs of People and the Environment in the 21st Century. I dunno if it's still up, but it had compelling evidence.

[darkmoon]

I just saw the movie An Inconvenient Truth, but I was already convinced that we humans our the cause that the climate is changing so drastically. We're having temperatures we didn't have for the last 650000 years, so surely you can't deny a connection!

Here in Belgium we broke all records again last month, as we did the month before! IMO there's only way out of this: stop denying and take our responsibility!

Originally Posted by dorothy hanna

My view is that we are wittnessing the rebirth of paradise. The old earth, and old world mentality, and interrpretation of events is passing away.

Are you saying that global warming = the rebirth of paradise?
I can not begin to comprehend what leads a conscious human being to say this!

[Josh Wesalo]

Michael Chrichton wrote a book, State of Fear, which is a thriller novel that basically debates global warming, with stats from scientific journals and conferences thrown into the dialogue. The ending conclusion is that there are so many variables involved in global warming that we can't even claim to understand it, but it's a great read.

[alsy]

Something like a decade ago, I read a statistic; 800 million cars on the planet. I don’t quite understand the intricacies of greenhouse gas emissions in reference to global warming. I sort of get the greenhouse thing but it does not make a lot of sense to me. What I do understand or comprehend in terms of effect is that of the overall heat from 800 million cars plus heat generated for producing electricity plus the heat from many industrial operations would contribute heat in the atmosphere. If you don’t believe there is contribution of heat then just go and place your hand near the engine after it has been running for a couple of minutes. In case it is not obvious to you, be careful, as you could burn your hand. Where does that heat go then? Just because someone does not have an explanation for it, does that mean it does not exist. Go ahead, put a couple of engines in your living room (of course i dont really recommend you do this if you want to live or value your health due to exhaust fumes) and tell me it don’t heat up your immediate atmosphere & quality of the air you breath. Just because one may not have a comprehension of scale, does that mean it isn’t true?
I sensed a trancy/ hypnotic / sheep like (as in follow like sheep) energy to the Google video in the initial posting. (Especially at the start.) I watched it until just after the hockey stick graph before I realized this is not the real deal. I have ignored my intuition enough times to conclude this is Industry PR material. As long as industry is run by bean counters, and people buy everything fed to them from the media without questioning they will continue their PR work in the various forms.

[Markus74]

I'm quite sure that we add to the global warming problem. There are lots of observations indicating this. But of course the big corporations will deny this since it would mean less profits for them. And I'd recommend everyone "An inconvenient truth" from Al Gore. Whether or not you like the guy personally, he has a lot of good arguments and evidence that supports his claims.

Michael Chrichton ("State of Fear") on the other hand seems to have a personal grudge against scientists who are finding ever more evidence for global warming. I dunno why though. I also think he's not as good as he was. His recent thriller about genes ("Next") isn't terribly good either. Maybe he had peaked a few years ago as a writer.

[darkmoon]

Originally Posted by Josh Wesalo

Michael Chrichton wrote a book, State of Fear, which is a thriller novel that basically debates global warming, with stats from scientific journals and conferences thrown into the dialogue. The ending conclusion is that there are so many variables involved in global warming that we can't even claim to understand it, but it's a great read.

Eh, AFAIK Michael Chrichton is not a scientist, so how is this relevant?

Of course there are a lot of variables involved, and of course we don't understand it all. And yes, there are natural cycles involved too, that has been known for a long time.

But that doesn't take away the fact that for the last decades, CO2 levels and temperatures were not just high, but off the charts! And this happens to coincide with an explosion of the world population and industry. So I think the most logical conclusion is that there's a connection.

Now, even if we aren't the cause, that doesn't take away the fact that the current trend will lead to disasters. But we are actually still able to prevent these disasters! Don't we have a moral obligation to each other and the planet to be part of the solution? Especially since it's so easy to make some small changes in your life that have a positive impact!

[stephencp]

"I'll go with the scientific journals because that's where the studies are published, and it supports what I have read myself."

Studies that are "peer reviewed" typically tend to reflect the collective view of all of the "peers", in this case who are all convinced global warmed is due to mankinds actions.

I don't know the answer but am not going to form my opinion based on a great movie or article.

Stephen
Power-Book Library: Free personal development, success, inspiration and motivational classics

[darkmoon]

Originally Posted by stephencp

I don't know the answer but am not going to form my opinion based on a great movie or article.

That's very wise. I didn't base my opinion on the movie either.
So, how are you going to form your opinion? Are you going to form an opinion at all, or treat this as a 'Someone Else's Problem'?

I've been reading about global warming since childhood, and for the last couple of years I've experienced it's effects first-hand when going outside.

Now, I'm currently reading the book 'The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People' by Stephen Covey (it's at the top of Steve's list). The first habit is being pro-active, it goes about being part of the solution instead of the problem, and focussing your efforts on things within your circle of influence.

Seeing the movie made me realize that the problem of global warming is actually both within my circle of concern and within my circle of influence, so I'm trying to act pro-actively and to be part of the solution rather than the problem. Ignoring this problem won't make it go away.