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| View Poll Results: Read the first post. What is the maximum value of P with which you will still jump? | |||
| 0 (never) | | 2 | 9.52% |
| .01 | | 1 | 4.76% |
| .05 | | 2 | 9.52% |
| .1 | | 1 | 4.76% |
| .2 | | 4 | 19.05% |
| .5 | | 4 | 19.05% |
| .7 | | 3 | 14.29% |
| .9 | | 3 | 14.29% |
| .99 | | 0 | 0% |
| 1 (always) | | 1 | 4.76% |
| Voters: 21. You may not vote on this poll | |||
| | Thread Tools | Display Modes |
| | #1 (permalink) |
| Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Helsinki, Finland
Posts: 146
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This is a thought experiment. Please read carefully before answering. You are alone on the bank of the river, there is no-one nearby. Suddenly, you hear a cry of help, and see a girl about 5 years old in the middle of the river. The current in the river is strong. In order to rescue the girl, you know you need to jump to the river, and if you do that you know that you risk death. Let us simplify the situation by assuming a few things: * You know that the probability of outside help arriving is 0. If you decide not to help the girl, the probability for her death is 1. * You know that if you jump in the river to save the girl, the probability of both of you to die is P, and the probability of both of you to survive is 1-P. No other outcome is possible. * You know the exact value of P, and are able to make a conscious decision without rushing it. The question is: What is the maximum value of P with which you would still jump to the river to try to save the girl? |
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| | #2 (permalink) |
| Senior Member |
I've already answered a similar question like this before. I offered my life to defend people once, and only a physical limitation is keeping me from continuing to honor that oath. Without having that oath, though, I would say that my answer would be much lower than the one I picked.
__________________ People often say that 'beauty is in the eye of the beholder,' and I say that the most liberating thing about beauty is realizing that you are the beholder. This empowers us to find beauty in places where others have not dared to look, including inside ourselves. --Salma Hayek My blog: Adam's Peace |
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| | #3 (permalink) |
| Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Helsinki, Finland
Posts: 146
|
Wow. I surely wouldn't have expected results like this. I think that most of my friends would say 0 (or some ridiculously small number like .000001) in this case. Now, to the interpretation to your answers. 0 is a pure egoist - one who does not care about others at all, or alternatively a person who knows that he will be discovering the Cure for Cancer 20 years ahead of his time. I arbitarily ended up in .05 since it's the often cited statistical definition of impossibility - I'd be going there and trusting that it won't happen. The implication of .05 is that I value my life 10 times that high than the unknown girl's. Of course, if I would be forced to make a rushed decision instead of a conscious one, my limit would probably be somewhere near .5. Those of you who voted .2 still value their lives more than the unknown girl's life, statistically about 2.5 times that high, and those who voted .5 value all life as equal. I was expecting most people to vote either .5 or below. Those who voted >.5 are true altruists, since they value the life of another, even a stranger, higher than their own, and are willing to die just to give another a slight chance of survival. There may be various reasons to this: being trained to do so, having a religious reason to do so etc, but I have to ask if this really is something that would be done by a person with a healthy ego and a healthy knowledge of their self-worth? Why do you only value yourself 60% or 20% of the girl? If you voted 1, you are suicidal: you would jump from the top of the world's highest waterfall (4 km) after someone that just fell. You see no reason to live, as you are willing to throw it away for nothing. I can still understand that people rush into such decisions, but if you consciously ended into that decision, I think you need help fast. |
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| | #4 (permalink) |
| Senior Member |
I chose .1. My reasons were not mathematically calculated. My first thought is - I must save her. My second, I can't allow myself to die, because I have a child myself who needs me. So it's a low-end trade-off!
__________________ Learn EFT and change your life today! http://www.reallygoodideas.com.au hazelb@reallygoodideas.com.au |
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| | #5 (permalink) |
| Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Berlin, Germany
Posts: 4,997
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In those situations you can't make conscious decisions, your body produces hormones that influence the choice much more than any "conscious effects".
__________________ I am always open for feedback on my posts. If your feedback would go offtopic feel free to send me a Personal Message. My posts generally don't contain medical or legal advice, if you have a problem seek the opinion of an expert Talking about this in terms of “bad news” or “bad judgment by business leaders” seems archaic. It’s like describing World War One as “a serious diplomatic concern.” Bruce Sterling about the financial crisis. |
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| | #6 (permalink) |
| Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Helsinki, Finland
Posts: 146
| True, and you also cannot predict how you would exactly do under such situations. However, you can also make conscious decisions about situations like this - in retrospect, as thought experiments, or when setting codes for moral or judicial systems. ("What is the maximum P with which you would condemn someone who does not jump to jail"), and similar questions.
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