Silver and Gold metals?

[elucidate]

I recently sat in on a webinar that revealed some very interesting historical 'facts' which pertain to our current financial situation...especially in America, which affects everyone else.

I learned that since Roman times the economy has gone in cycles where everything is going well for a while and "good money" flourishes. Social programs are set up and then a certain amount is invested in Military spending which then becomes a financial boost when countries go to war, which then leads to what's called "fiat currency" which then leads to inflation and then wealth transfer.

These seven things have always been the cycle that leads to eventual economic depression, and we are about to see that happen in the coming year, and although most people would think this is the worst time to invest in metals, it is actually the best time, and people like the Rothchilds have garnered extreme wealth at the 7th stage of wealth transfer during the last cycles that occured, such as during the Great Depression etc.

I am still allowing this information to settle into my brain and hopefully make sense, and I was wondering if any peeps out there know about this and could elaborate a bit.

I find it interesting, not just from a historical point of view, but obviously because this is something that really rich people have always known about but never told the majority of people. If everyone knew about this more people would be able to invest even small amounts of money into precious metals and be set for life.

It poses a few questions, but I am mainly looking to understand this better, and any help would be appreciated. I want to do my research further into this, but don't really know where to start looking?

ALG, I was hoping you might chime in here with some juicy hints.

[newmark]

What are these 7 stages?

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by newmark

What are these 7 stages?

As I stated in my OP:

1) Good Money

2)Social Programs

3)Military spending

4)WAR!

5)Fiat currency

6)Inflation

7)Wealth Transfer.

According to Matt Dillard of the Elevation Group, we are just transitioning between stages 6 and 7, and in the next year or so we will be in the stage of Wealth Transfer!

All the rich people are already buying as much silver and gold as they can possibly get, and have been since stage 6.

After this 7th stage the economy will crash.

[SnerpGoodWord]

Let me guess, the people running this webinar are selling gold and silver in some form, aren't they? Because they want you to have the fabulous opportunity to profit from this "wealth transfer"? They'll take all that nasty, bad fiat money off your hands so you can have real money?

Most of what you described in the OP is economic fallacy. Inflation is a function of the supply and demand for money, not what the money is made out of. For example, Spain was on a strict gold standard in the 1500s and experienced substantial inflation because the supply of gold increased dramatically with the discovery of the new world.

Also be aware that low but positive inflation is a requirement of a functioning currency system. If it doesn't exist, you get hording, and as a result the currency moves out of circulation and is eventually replaced by a better currency. While the idea of currency hording makes goldbugs all tingly inside, it's no way to run a national monetary system.

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

All the rich people are already buying as much silver and gold as they can possibly get, and have been since stage 6.

Not true. The wealthiest 5 people in the US are (according to the Forbes list):

Bill Gates
Warren Buffett
Larry Ellison
Christy Walton
Charles Koch

And it happens that all 5 are fairly public individuals where we know what their major holdings are. And in none of those cases is it gold or silver. It's Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Wallmart and Koch Industries respectively.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Let me guess, the people running this webinar are selling gold and silver in some form, aren't they? Because they want you to have the fabulous opportunity to profit from this "wealth transfer"? They'll take all that nasty, bad fiat money off your hands so you can have real money?

No, there was nothing mentioned of this at all.

He was 'selling' the information with the hope that people would become members of his Elevation Group, where he promised to teach more about how to go about taking advantage of the wealth transfer stage...and from what he said, his motivations were to get that information out to as many people as possible, so yeah, he was wanting to make money for himself of course.

I cannot know for sure if these were his true motivations for telling us this, as I did not buy the package he was offering, but thought I'd research what he said anyway..He wasn't referring to it as 'nasty fiat' either, just explaining what it is and where it fits into the cycle.

Most of what you described in the OP is economic fallacy. Inflation is a function of the supply and demand for money, not what the money is made out of. For example, Spain was on a strict gold standard in the 1500s and experienced substantial inflation because the supply of gold increased dramatically with the discovery of the new world.

Well this is what I was trying to learn more about. I may not have even said it right? As the webinar was live, I wrote down what I could but did not take everything in or absorb all the information, and did not understand half of it either...which is why I started this thread, to hopefully learn more.

Also be aware that low but positive inflation is a requirement of a functioning currency system. If it doesn't exist, you get hording, and as a result the currency moves out of circulation and is eventually replaced by a better currency. While the idea of currency hording makes goldbugs all tingly inside, it's no way to run a national monetary system.

Neither I nor the man presenting the webinar made any allusion towards inflation being a bad thing. He merely stated that during the cycle, inflation more or less caves in on itself, which leads to the 7th stage...but again, I may not have understood that right.

[SnerpGoodWord]

Looking into the Elevation Group, it's run by an MLM guy selling something he calls "infinite banking". I've got no clue what "infinite banking" is, but I bet it leaves you with less of that nasty fiat currency, and him with more.

I don't think it's a matter of you not understanding right - I suspect what you posted is more or less what was said. The issue is the information being wrong, not incorrectly transcribed.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Not true. The wealthiest 5 people in the US are (according to the Forbes list):

Bill Gates
Warren Buffett
Larry Ellison
Christy Walton
Charles Koch

And it happens that all 5 are fairly public individuals where we know what their major holdings are. And in none of those cases is it gold or silver. It's Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Wallmart and Koch Industries respectively.

How do we know he was referring to just the richest in America though? Also, people like the Rothchilds...where are they on the top ten list? He mentioned their name specifically.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Looking into the Elevation Group, it's run by an MLM guy selling something he calls "infinite banking". I've got no clue what "infinite banking" is, but I bet it leaves you with less of that nasty fiat currency, and him with more.

I don't think it's a matter of you not understanding right - I suspect what you posted is more or less what was said. The issue is the information being wrong, not incorrectly transcribed.

Ok.

He said he'd been researching it for years and has been buying as much gold and silver as he can manage for the last two years.

He could have been lying through his teeth I suppose...I've heard it does happen in the business world

What do you think then about the historical references he made...with Rome and the great depression? Surely there must be some truth to it. He encouraged people to do their homework and not just take his word for it. Why would someone do that if he knew it was ********?

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

How do we know he was referring to just the richest in America though? Also, people like the Rothchilds...where are they on the top ten list? He mentioned their name specifically.

Outside of sovereign wealth (ie people like the Sultan of Brunei) most of the wealthiest people in the world are in the US. That said the Forbes list for the Wealthiest people in Europe is likewise topped by people with known holdings:

Ingvar Kamprad (Ikea)
Karl & Theo Albrecht (Aldi supermarkets)
Amancio Ortega (Inditex)
Bernard Arnault (Louis Vuitton, Groupe Arnault)
Stefan Persson (H&M)

Not a Rothschild in sight. By comparison they're small potatoes.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Outside of sovereign wealth (ie people like the Sultan of Brunei) most of the wealthiest people in the world are in the US. That said the Forbes list for the Wealthiest people in Europe is likewise topped by people with known holdings:

Ingvar Kamprad (Ikea)
Karl & Theo Albrecht (Aldi supermarkets)
Amancio Ortega (Inditex)
Bernard Arnault (Louis Vuitton, Groupe Arnault)
Stefan Persson (H&M)

Not a Rothschild in sight. By comparison they're small potatoes.

Huh...that's interesting.

Thanks for filling me in there. I'm kinda new to all this finance stuff.

I always thought the Rothschild were old money, and were up there and running the show so to speak...obviously not.

So, would you say then that the 7 stages cycle he mentioned that he claims dates back to Roman times was poorly researched, or just inaccurate then?

I definitely think that War generates economic growth of some kind though, and I'm still trying to understand all the other stages.

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

What do you think then about the historical references he made...with Rome and the great depression? Surely there must be some truth to it. He encouraged people to do their homework and not just take his word for it. Why would someone do that if he knew it was ********?

I think the historical references are incomplete or inaccurate. Roman currency was primarily solid gold through the fall of the empire - the last incarnation being the Constantine Solidus. Similarly, the US was on a gold standard entering the great depression. In fact, a contracting money supply (aka deflation) was one of the causes of the depression.

The reason he said "do your homework" is that he's on a freeroll. He knows it sounds convincing, and that some percentage of the people listening wouldn't bother, or wouldn't have the historical and economic knowledge to do a good job. So some people will sign up for his scheme despite the inaccuracy.

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

I always thought the Rothschild were old money, and were up there and running the show so to speak...obviously not.

One of the major changes in the latter half of the 20th century is "new money" almost totally displacing "old money" at the top of the economic heap.

So, would you say then that the 7 stages cycle he mentioned that he claims dates back to Roman times was poorly researched, or just inaccurate then?

I would disagree with the idea that metal-based money is "good money" and "wealth transfer" is too vague to really comment on. Other than that, the other 5 "steps" happen throughout history, but not necessarily in the order that he stated, nor is is guaranteed that one will occur because the previous ones happened. For example, history is full of examples of major wars that were not preceded by social programs or even increased military spending. WWI for the US would be an prominent example.

I definitely think that War generates economic growth of some kind though, and I'm still trying to understand all the other stages.

War creates massive demand for goods, and ties up a lot of labor. In that sense it produces growth.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

I think the historical references are incomplete or inaccurate. Roman currency was primarily solid gold through the fall of the empire - the last incarnation being the Constantine Solidus. Similarly, the US was on a gold standard entering the great depression. In fact, a contracting money supply (aka deflation) was one of the causes of the depression.

The reason he said "do your homework" is that he's on a freeroll. He knows it sounds convincing, and that some percentage of the people listening wouldn't bother, or wouldn't have the historical and economic knowledge to do a good job. So some people will sign up for his scheme despite the inaccuracy.

Yes, that makes perfect sense. I noticed quite a lot of people dropping off the guest list once he started mentioning his package deal. Quite a few hung in there though til the end, so I'm sure he made a bundle, and probably does these webinars fairly regularly, making sure not to add the same peoples email addresses from the last one.

He said only 250 people were able to get this "exclusive secret information that the worlds richest didn't want everyone to know about", which always makes me think it's a marketing strategy to make the person feel special for getting 'chosen'.

Thanks for the link.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

One of the major changes in the latter half of the 20th century is "new money" almost totally displacing "old money" at the top of the economic heap.

Good to know.

I would disagree with the idea that metal-based money is "good money" and "wealth transfer" is too vague to really comment on. Other than that, the other 5 "steps" happen throughout history, but not necessarily in the order that he stated, nor is is guaranteed that one will occur because the previous ones happened. For example, history is full of examples of major wars that were not preceded by social programs or even increased military spending. WWI for the US would be an prominent example.

War creates massive demand for goods, and ties up a lot of labor. In that sense it produces growth.

I honestly wasn't sure how to translate the meanings of the words he used, as it was obviously a certain 'language' that business people are familiar with, and people involved in economics.

I wonder why he put them in that order then, and claimed to have studied all this for years to distill it?

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

I honestly wasn't sure how to translate the meanings of the words he used, as it was obviously a certain 'language' that business people are familiar with, and people involved in economics.

I wonder why he put them in that order then, and claimed to have studied all this for years to distill it?

Two reasons. One, he's selling something. Two, what he's saying is taken from a certain strain of, for lack of a better term, internet economics. Even with you repeating it second hand the phrases and arguments were recognizable. This line of economics isn't academic in the sense that it doesn't have much attachment to accuracy (even compared to "regular" economics, which is saying something). For example, mis-stating the currency situation at the end of the Roman Empire is a standard argument. Instead it mixes strains of libertarianism, goldbug philosophy, 19th century US isolationism, and conspiracy theorizing (Rothchilds) to create something that sounds just plausible enough to convince you there's something rotten in the financial system. It's become very popular because there IS something rotten in the system and people know it, but it's not what's being described.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Two reasons. One, he's selling something. Two, what he's saying is taken from a certain strain of, for lack of a better term, internet economics. Even with you repeating it second hand the phrases and arguments were recognizable. This line of economics isn't academic in the sense that it doesn't have much attachment to accuracy (even compared to "regular" economics, which is saying something). For example, mis-stating the currency situation at the end of the Roman Empire is a standard argument. Instead it mixes strains of libertarianism, goldbug philosophy, 19th century US isolationism, and conspiracy theorizing (Rothchilds) to create something that sounds just plausible enough to convince you there's something rotten in the financial system. It's become very popular because there IS something rotten in the system and people know it, but it's not what's being described.

So, taking a bit of fact and blending it with a bit of fiction for filler so as to make it just believable enough for people to buy the program and be "guided" through the process of taking advantage of this 'secret' to ensure great wealth is the place you end up while everyone else is lining up for food stamps...is that what you mean?

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

So, taking a bit of fact and blending it with a bit of fiction for filler so as to make it just believable enough for people to buy the program and be "guided" through the process of taking advantage of this 'secret' to ensure great wealth is the place you end up while everyone else is lining up for food stamps...is that what you mean?

That's the spirit.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

That's the spirit.

That's bullshi...er...business I guess,

Just one more question. Do all the people on the top 5 list HAVE to declare their dealings publicly? Can they buy gold or silver privately without it being listed?

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by elucidate

That's bullshi...er...business I guess,

Just one more question. Do all the people on the top 5 list HAVE to declare their dealings publicly? Can they buy gold or silver privately without it being listed?

In theory the major metals exchanges (COMEX, NYMEX, LME) are anonymous. The quantities held by various types of parties show up on the "commitment of traders" (CoT) report, but not who those entities are. However, for all big positions it quickly becomes an open secret who's behind it because there's tons of clerks etc. who know and they aren't supposed to leak but they do.

To the best of my knowledge none of the names I listed (either the corporations or the people) have been involved in large metals transactions in the last 10 years.

If you want to study the kind of disruptions that a major billionaire player getting involved in the metals market can cause, look up the "Hunt silver manipulation". Incidentally, it ended badly for the Hunt family.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

In theory the major metals exchanges (COMEX, NYMEX, LME) are anonymous. The quantities held by various types of parties show up on the "commitment of traders" (CoT) report, but not who those entities are. However, for all big positions it quickly becomes an open secret who's behind it because there's tons of clerks etc. who know and they aren't supposed to leak but they do.

To the best of my knowledge none of the names I listed (either the corporations or the people) have been involved in large metals transactions in the last 10 years.

If you want to study the kind of disruptions that a major billionaire player getting involved in the metals market can cause, look up the "Hunt silver manipulation". Incidentally, it ended badly for the Hunt family.

Thanks so much for all the info.

[elucidate]

I also need to correct myself. I said the guys name was Matt but it's actually Mike Dillard. I got that wrong.

[lycan]

elucidate,

Fiat currencies are a type of government bond. They collapse when creditors (people who use the currency) realize the government is abusing its credit (it is no longer creditworthy). See, the official "Bonds" are bought by the Central Bank (Federal Reserve in the case of the U.S.) with its fiat currency. The government might not default on the bond contracts, but creditors realize that they are losing wealth with them (the government has created a situation of negative real interest rates) because the Central Bank is abusing its control over the fiat currency to lower the real cost of carry of the federal government's debt. Commodity currencies (like precious metals) are not based on credit, so nobody can mismanage them, making them a safe haven from sovereign credit issues.

Was that clear? Probably not.

Fiat currencies exist so the government's credit never has to be placed at the mercy of the market while at the same time the government is never placed in a position of having to overtly violate contracts.

The only way you can make a fortune in gold/silver is if you:

A) Invest in a bubble.
B) Borrow a collapsing currency to buy the gold/silver.

[elucidate]

Originally Posted by lycan

elucidate,

Fiat currencies are a type of government bond. They collapse when creditors (people who use the currency) realize the government is abusing its credit (it is no longer creditworthy). See, the official "Bonds" are bought by the Central Bank (Federal Reserve in the case of the U.S.) with its fiat currency. The government might not default on the bond contracts, but creditors realize that they are losing wealth with them (the government has created a situation of negative real interest rates) because the Central Bank is abusing its control over the fiat currency to lower the real cost of carry of the federal government's debt. Commodity currencies (like precious metals) are not based on credit, so nobody can mismanage them, making them a safe haven from sovereign credit issues.

Was that clear? Probably not.

Fiat currencies exist so the government's credit never has to be placed at the mercy of the market while at the same time they the government is never placed in a position of having to overtly violate contracts.

Thankyou, yes it was clear, I just need to take my time to digest the words and their meanings. I'm not naturally inclined towards economics as a subject (artistic disposition and all) so the language sometimes leaves me stumped.

[lycan]

Originally Posted by elucidate

Thankyou, yes it was clear, I just need to take my time to digest the words and their meanings. I'm not naturally inclined towards economics as a subject (artistic disposition and all) so the language sometimes leaves me stumped.

I added the following note:

The only way you can make a fortune in gold/silver is if you:

A) Invest in a bubble.
B) Borrow a collapsing currency to buy the gold/silver.

[lycan]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

Also be aware that low but positive inflation is a requirement of a functioning currency system. If it doesn't exist, you get hording, and as a result the currency moves out of circulation and is eventually replaced by a better currency. While the idea of currency hording makes goldbugs all tingly inside, it's no way to run a national monetary system.

That is not true.

[lycan]

I definitely think that War generates economic growth of some kind though, and I'm still trying to understand all the other stages.

It does not, unless it is particular kind of war that changes the economic environment positively (a war that removes legal or cultural barriers to productive activity).

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by lycan

elucidate,

Fiat currencies are a type of government bond. They collapse when creditors (people who use the currency) realize the government is abusing its credit (it is no longer creditworthy).

This is PAINFULLY false.

I really don't have time to keep debunking this, but suffice to say lycan is WAY outside the mainstream of economic thought here - more internet economics at work.

[lycan]

Originally Posted by SnerpGoodWord

This is PAINFULLY false.

I really don't have time to keep debunking this, but suffice to say lycan is WAY outside the mainstream of economic thought here - more internet economics at work.

No, it is not false. It may be slightly oversimplified, since this is not an economics textbook, but it is definitely not false, much less "painfully" so. Why do you believe currencies collapse, if what I stated is false?

[SnerpGoodWord]

Originally Posted by lycan

That is not true.

Yes it is. Deflation in any currency causes hording because you can increase your purchasing power just by holding (aka hording) the money. There are numerous historic examples, the most notable being the hording of gold backed dollars in the early part of the great depression in the US.

This phenomenon occurs whether the money in question is fiat money or commodity money, but typically only happens in commodity money because if a fiat currency becomes deflationary the government will try to expand the money supply to re-instate mild inflation.

Economics 201.