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In the last Greece and Euro news I have noticed a very interesting gap between mainstream english financial news and other sources. For some reason english news seem to point at what favors banks and speculators, creating a picture for the emotional herd. "US is fine, Europe is in crisis". One interesting case is Greece. People say "huh, the horrible Greece". Greece accounts only 3% of EU economy. Look at the countries that will issue more debt in 2010. (Source GEAB) ![]() ![]() You may say US has a bigger economy or a stronger GDP... but look at this. (Source GEAB) ![]() It is evident that recovery can only come from private demand because using govt deficit is borrowing and letting future generations to pay. This is long term trend in private demand in US, so we can see sustainability of the system. (Source Business Insider) ![]() People look at Europe because they say US has improved since 2009... Look at this. (Source Business Insider) ![]() Of course the market is driven by people's emotions, but in the end it will be only a temporary bubble. With this info you could see what should be your real concern if you plan to invest. Following the herd will make you suffer what the herd may suffer. And it is your money what you are risking. In the past people thought "What is good for Wall Street is good for US" and nowadays people think "what is good for US government is good for US people". Wrong. If Euro falls, it increases dependence of China on US dollar, with no other strong currency to move assets, since Japanese yen can also be compromised if Japan lends money to US. If Euro falls US govt could issue cheaper bonds to continue a deficitary behavior. And deficit could skyrocket with a new war against Korea. OBAMA TELLS MILITARY: BE PREPARED FOR WAR IN KOREA All this keeps the demand of dollars high, keeping dollar high, yuan down and inflation under control. But it also makes American workers more expensive, creating an incentive to export jobs. In 1982 Argentina fought Falkland's war and the resulting spending and deficitary behavior led to hyperinflation in 1989 and people starved in a country that produces meat and fruits. US can export inflation, which would make foreign workers cheaper, or it could absorb inflation and hit American pockets with buying power losses. The imbalance in the job market is so high that a fall of dollar would not significantly increase jobs in US, since Americans should need to lose between 2/3 to 14/15 of buying power to be competitive as a worker in a globalized job market. And without increase of employment US is not likely to recover using private demand, which is the only healthy way of recovery without deficits. Euro crisis could only make Europeans cheaper, adding more problems to American workers, and it would help US government deficitary spending. So what's good for US govt is no longer good for Americans. Euro crisis could only end up in bailing out banks and speculators with European taxpayer money, which would be a european TARP. US says it will bet on technology to get out of crisis. In 1790 90% of people were farmers. nowadays less than 3% are farmers. Does it mean technology brought free food and spare time for 87% of Americans? No. Technology makes it harder and harder to find a job. Exporting inflation (which is what US does) only makes foreign workers cheaper. This is not the picture you see in the mainstream media. I post this so you can think about relying on mainstream financial media. Last edited by ar81; 05-24-2010 at 10:37 PM. |
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| | #3 (permalink) | |
| Member Join Date: May 2010 Location: Great White North
Posts: 39
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Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, etc. give you some facts and some opinions. We never know when the news is an editorial or a fact. They're often only opinions from lay people to lay people. Opinions that attempt to blame our market weaknesses on Europe. They attempt to explain to us, lay people / investors, why we're experiencing this wild roller-coaster ride. Of course, Greece is a small country. But they fail to mention that fact. Like as if that fact was unimportant to us. Directly or indirectly, the writers of those articles probably work for the financial service industry, but they never seem to mention that important fact either. Like as if that fact was also unimportant to us. The idea is that, you buy their ideas and explanations, so Wall Street can hold on to your retirement money and make money at your expense. They don't care if you have to work till you're 90 years old, while they suck up all of your money and never give any of it back. From their perspective, they do whatever they can, to continue making money at your expense. Last edited by MW11; 05-28-2010 at 12:57 AM. | |
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