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InJoy · 05-09-2007, 09:14 PM

Michael,

In the case of such things as the weather and the little wind up car, I'm with you all the way. I do think that, were there a device with enough computing power, those things could be accurately predicted as long as there was no human intervention to change things up.

The human factor is where you lose me.

You might be able to guess the guy in the maze's path with a high level of accuracy, but I submit that it would be impossible to do it with 100% accuracy because of free-will. There is no way (and, I believe, could be no way) to predict if and at what point your maze guy gets a wild hair and decides, just for the sake of self-amusement to try the maze walking backwards, or on his hands, or to simply sit his butt down and refuse to try anymore.

In the instance of your homophobic lawn guard, it is impossible for anything or anyone to ever predict with 100% accuracy if and when a life-changing thought will enter his mind that will change his reaction completely. It is further impossible to predict what that change in reaction will be. We can guess. A computer might be able to guess. But nobody could say for certain (i.e. tell the future a la Minority Report).

I could stop typing in the middle of a sentence here. Chances are, and it could probably be accurately guessed that I won't. But neither you, nor the most powerful computers of the future could ever foretell with absolute certainty what I'm going to do next because I have free will and I can decide to change my mind in an infinite number of ways.

The wind up car and the weather do not have that power, and can therefore (hypothetically) be predicted with certainty.

Are we saying the same thing here, Michael, or are we disagreeing. I'm not entirely sure.

05-09-2007, 09:14 PM	#58 (permalink)
InJoy Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Here, Now Posts: 202	Michael, In the case of such things as the weather and the little wind up car, I'm with you all the way. I do think that, were there a device with enough computing power, those things could be accurately predicted as long as there was no human intervention to change things up. The human factor is where you lose me. You might be able to guess the guy in the maze's path with a high level of accuracy, but I submit that it would be impossible to do it with 100% accuracy because of free-will. There is no way (and, I believe, could be no way) to predict if and at what point your maze guy gets a wild hair and decides, just for the sake of self-amusement to try the maze walking backwards, or on his hands, or to simply sit his butt down and refuse to try anymore. In the instance of your homophobic lawn guard, it is impossible for anything or anyone to ever predict with 100% accuracy if and when a life-changing thought will enter his mind that will change his reaction completely. It is further impossible to predict what that change in reaction will be. We can guess. A computer might be able to guess. But nobody could say for certain (i.e. tell the future a la Minority Report). I could stop typing in the middle of a sentence here. Chances are, and it could probably be accurately guessed that I won't. But neither you, nor the most powerful computers of the future could ever foretell with absolute certainty what I'm going to do next because I have free will and I can decide to change my mind in an infinite number of ways. The wind up car and the weather do not have that power, and can therefore (hypothetically) be predicted with certainty. Are we saying the same thing here, Michael, or are we disagreeing. I'm not entirely sure.