I stopped working full time in IT 2 years ago, and I still get calls every couple of months asking me if I am looking for work.
Programming is alive and well if you are good and, more importantly, can build a reputation for being good.
Superstar programmers (I would like to think I am closer to this category than the mediocre one) have a completely different mindset than normal people.
I think very logically for example, so I can understand computers very easily, and can pick up a new programming language in about a week of study.
To a superstar programming is like art, they are creating something 'beautiful' (for want of a better word) so throw themselves into it like their life depended on it.
If your friend thinks about his coding as 'art' and loves doing it, then he will make it big.
But if he just 'doesn't mind programming -too much-' and think its a good way to earn an easy buck then he will find himself struggling.
Good luck to him either way.
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