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Originally Posted by servantofone  And where do you get that figure and where is it derived from? Even a resource would be nice. |
Well mutations occur about 1 in 10^8 (one hundred million) bases. But I don't think there is a mathematical model of what to expect DNA to do from any given point. Starting with pre cell life up to current day life forms we can only observe what HAS happened and how long did it take (3.8 billion years).
The thing in question is what is the probability of simple life forming. Recent studies in RNA have shown the probability to be reasonable and creationist probability equations to be mis-leading.
Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations
More recently in science news, RNA has been found that replicates itself repeatedly.
Scripps scientists develop first examples of RNA that replicates itself indefinitely | Eureka! Science News
I find the Universe appears to be a created structure but the emergence of life on Earth will likely be fully explained by natural process.