Quote:
Originally Posted by MidasGirl  Stinking thinking. Now is a good time, when everyone else is thinking it's not a good time. If you always go with the crowd, you'll always go down with them. But I did notice you are OK with boring. Luckily, people like you are good to have around cuz you get out of the way for the risk takers that just don't settle for 'boring but safe'. If everybody waited for things to turn around, they wouldn't. |
This has nothing to do with being contrarian, more to do with "keeping your powder dry" so to speak. If you believe "the recovery" is here, then by all means go for it, I reckon you're mistaken and will regret it, but that's just me.
To my way of thinking if you can save for a while and not do anything stupid like putting any more money into the markets, then you'll have enough in a few years to either buy a house or engage a wealth manager to actually trade for you, etc. If money is what you love then now is a time to be cautious, the "paradox of thrift" be dammed
Can't say as I've ever been bored, though I may be boring, but I've never been a part of the crowd, or interested in making money. Seems to me that in world filled with as much information as this one, it would be a crime to waste time chasing paper when I could be learning instead.
For instance, the more I learn of risk, (and this book is probably the best on the subject:
Amazon.com: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (0723812295630): Peter L. Bernstein: Books) the more I learn that it's never the things you see coming that keep you up at night. The best you can do when getting into something is ask yourself two questions, "do I know what I'm doing?" and "what's the worst that can happen?" Provided you don't know what you're doing and you're happy if the worst should happen then you're good to go. Everything else you deal with as it happens. It doesn't matter that you get knocked down, what matters is that you get back up again. The moment you decide to stay down it's over.
Wired 8.04: The Dumbass, The Daytrader, and the New Democracy Anthony Elgindy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
At the moment, going into the business end of the worst recession since the first world war, "safe but boring" has much to recommend it. Safe but boring will keep you alive and solvent. Just like the man with running shoes saying to the bloke next to him, "I don't have to out run the tiger, I just have to out run you" All you need to do at the moment is remain standing, once the dust settles then to the victor go the spoils. You can see a vivid demonstration of this with the remaining large commercial banks, (because there are no more investment banks) the ones that didn't fail get to carve up the business between them and with less competition they can charge higher fees. Financial Darwinism writ large.
The key to this is to understand your position in the great scheme of things, (nobody) It is enough to see far enough ahead to get out of the way of the irresistible force, it will decimate everything in it's path, all you need to be is one step outside of that.
If you have to look in the mirror and do the "rah rah" thing in the morning, then I hope it's working out for you. I maintain a simple faith, and make the rest up as I go along, for everything else there is the desiderata.
YMMV