I wouldn't bring it up yet. If it gets worse, like 25 pounds overweight, maybe suggest working out together, but don't just come out and say, "Boy, you're getting kind of fat, huh?" You could set out positive intentions for her to start working at losing weight. And 10 pounds should come off relatively fast, depending on her base weight.
From my personal experience, when you spend a lot of time with someone and they're gaining weight gradually, it takes awhile for me to even notice until there's at least 20 pounds extra on there. You must have a very keen eye or the weight came on suddenly.
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