Answering your question depends upon perspective since firstly, manifestations don't have a deadline. Some intentions take a few days to manifest while others may take years. Secondly, it depends how specific the intentions are and how measurable the manifestations are.
Maybe a good solution would be to keep an I-M journal or log where you write when an intention was made, how frequently after that, what its specifics are, when an alpha reflection occurs and when the manifestation occurs in its completeness. Calculate your odds from that, but keep in mind another thing. You might want to first believe that I-M works to 100 % and then the universe will give you exactly that proof, instead of wishfully hoping that you'll surpass a given percentage and then only manifest according to that ratio.
I've recently started using I-M and have only made two intentions so far. The first one manifested two weeks after I intended it while the second one hasn't manifested yet after two weeks+ of trying. So while the ratio is currently 50 %, I believe it to become 100 %, and so it will.
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