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Old 03-12-2008, 02:41 AM   #8 (permalink)
elliot42
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I think it might be interesting to talk about direct paths vs. direct solutions.

Suppose you are standing in a dark, fog-shrouded field at night. In the distance, you see a glowing beacon that shows the home you want to reach. You are trying to decide how to get to that light. Off to the side of you, you can see the entrance to a path in the field. You have two choices: 1) you can walk straight forward in a line towards the light, 2) you can follow the path and see where it leads.

It's a silly metaphor but I think it illustrates the main idea of uncertainty. The path represents the indirect line of action: each marginal step is easy, but the path is probably long and windy and may spiral forever, never getting you to your goal. The direct line to the goal you know will theoretically get you there, but walking outside the path will be difficult, and it could be impossible. People tend to not know in advance how hard it is, and take a risk-averse position, just in case it's impossible.

Also, just to be complete, you should theoretically measure a short but slow path (e.g. walking through a short field of tar) vs. a long but fast path (taking the paved road all the way around). There are questions of efficiency and opportunity cost involved.

So to actually get to the point of the first line of this point: it's one thing to have a theoretical direct path, it's another thing to know whether the direct path is a feasible or efficient direct solution. It's not that people take the established path just because they are lazy; they take the established path because they are fundamentally uncertain and afraid of uncertainty.

And when I say "people," mainly I mean me...

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On a related note, here is a brainstorm on dealing with unknown difficult direct path:

- Reduce uncertainty by studying problem

- Make path forward easier by following in footsteps of experienced guide, or other people who can smooth the ride for you while you struggle. This includes teaching, guidance, loans, equipment, childcare, etc.. This also puts you a nice position to help other people who come after you.

- Heuristic: walk in a straight line towards goal until you hit an intractable problem, then walk sideways until you find a road (i.e. sidestep the problem, somehow. For example, if you don't know how to do something, recruit a friend who does?). Then once you've avoided the intractable problem, start walking straight towards goal again.

I don't know if any of this made any sense, but I would love feedback.
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