I'm going to respond to Nick breifly.
I often don't agree with posts and mostly I ignore them. I had to comment on yours because as I said, in my opinion, it is damaging and false and serves no value whatsoever.
If you allow external events to dictate internal feelings then you have a problem with self-esteem and I have dealt with enough real world examples to have an underdstanding of how that works. One of the common threads running through many successful people is a strong internal locus of control. They take on new ventures confident that they will succeed, they don't wait to succeed before they feel confident. The latter makes success far less likely and ALG demonstrated that well with his grenade story. That is EXACTLY how it works.
BTW. I could have given hundreds of examples, they were just the ones that popped into my mind. If you look at people at the top of their field they are pretty much all confident people in whatever they do. I'm sure you know this, but the average millionaire goes bankrupt over 3 times. Surely they should have their confidence crushed and be unable to bounce back after the first time using your logic. Most remain just as confident in their own abilities even though they screwed up. Imagine having a neurologist performing his first solo opertaion and not feeling confident that he can do it. Shaky hands anybody?
I've never read any major authority that agrees with what you're suggesting Nick. So either you maybe have it wrong, or you're right, and they're all wrong. Tough call