Personal Development for Smart People Forums - View Single Post - An advice to dead or dying people, from an unfortunate living spirit

JSB · 11-16-2007, 04:23 PM

I've been reading up a great deal on peak oil theory recently, and while it has the potential to cause the collapse of our modern civilization, I don't think that is how this particular issue is going to play itself out.

The transition from petroleum to other energy sources will cause some nasty economic shocks to be sure, but I think that the other side of the transition will actually see an economy and energy base that is healthier, greener and more reliable than our current one.

Peak oil armageddon assumes that as oil prices rise beyond a certain point, people will give up and die. The fact is, there's enough oil to last for decades; it's just going to be atrociously expensive as demand outstrips production. The inflationary pressure will drive a worldwide recession, but will also spur investment and development of alternatives.

A recession will in of itself reduce demand to some degree, and efficiency improvement alone (at least in the U.S.) can reduce our oil consumption by at least 30%. This will not "solve the oil problem", but it can act as a valve to reduce demand and keep prices from exploding indefinitely.

It may take panic, hyperinflation and economic depression to drive conversion to alternative energy, but the alternatives are out there and they are viable. It is not necessary to convert all at once either, only fast enough to reduce demand for oil and keep prices from hyperinflating.

Algae produced biodiesel has the potential to replace all liquid fuels used in the US without displacing existing food crops. The technology needs to be perfected, but does not require converting the entire vehicle fleet to exotic hypercapacitor powered electric cars or anything of the sort.

Don't get me wrong, high oil prices will cause a great deal of pain, deprivation, fighting, and political unrest, as well as environmental damage as coal gasification is used as a "stopgap fuel", but peak oil will only destroy modern civilization if we sit back and let it.

11-16-2007, 04:23 PM	#49 (permalink)
JSB Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 440	Peak Oil I've been reading up a great deal on peak oil theory recently, and while it has the potential to cause the collapse of our modern civilization, I don't think that is how this particular issue is going to play itself out. The transition from petroleum to other energy sources will cause some nasty economic shocks to be sure, but I think that the other side of the transition will actually see an economy and energy base that is healthier, greener and more reliable than our current one. Peak oil armageddon assumes that as oil prices rise beyond a certain point, people will give up and die. The fact is, there's enough oil to last for decades; it's just going to be atrociously expensive as demand outstrips production. The inflationary pressure will drive a worldwide recession, but will also spur investment and development of alternatives. A recession will in of itself reduce demand to some degree, and efficiency improvement alone (at least in the U.S.) can reduce our oil consumption by at least 30%. This will not "solve the oil problem", but it can act as a valve to reduce demand and keep prices from exploding indefinitely. It may take panic, hyperinflation and economic depression to drive conversion to alternative energy, but the alternatives are out there and they are viable. It is not necessary to convert all at once either, only fast enough to reduce demand for oil and keep prices from hyperinflating. Algae produced biodiesel has the potential to replace all liquid fuels used in the US without displacing existing food crops. The technology needs to be perfected, but does not require converting the entire vehicle fleet to exotic hypercapacitor powered electric cars or anything of the sort. Don't get me wrong, high oil prices will cause a great deal of pain, deprivation, fighting, and political unrest, as well as environmental damage as coal gasification is used as a "stopgap fuel", but peak oil will only destroy modern civilization if we sit back and let it.