Personal Development for Smart People Forums - View Single Post - Algorithm to automatically guess sport bets

raffish · 10-25-2007, 10:33 PM

Dear da1prophet, THANKS THANKS THANKS for you post, because It is exctly the kind of professional reply I was in search of.

Maybe it is even too technical, as I don't even know the slang "-100" or "-150". It is common speach for who has been in professional betting for years, it is Arab for a Euro newbie making his home-brew stats on his own in Excel

I'm used to see bets phrased in this form:
Chicago Fire - Washington Dc United
1: 2.50
X: 3.10
2: 2.50
where "1" stands for betting that the team playing at hoem will win, "X" betting on draw and "2" betting on the team playing away win.
For Example, 1: 2.50 means that if I bet 1$ on Chicago winning and they win, I will be paid back 2.50$ .

I can show you how I calculated the threshold to begin making money.
1. I assume that every day I put a fixed "1 money unit" on every match on Betway website.
2. At the end of the day, my algorithm will have performed a X% accuracy overall in predicting the 1X2 results of all bets, and according to the wages of the bets it will have lead to a Y% earning on the invested money (wether positive or negative).
3. Thus I've plotted a graph with all such (X,Y) points, one for each day. You can see the graph here.
4. A simple linear regression on the point dispersion on the graph shows about 55% to be the threshold to begin making money in the long period, and 60% to allow making a 5% earning.

Pls comment on my work. I promise I will publish an article on my website to explain in details my work.

I'M REALLY LONGING FOR YOUR OPINION ON MY WORK, I GUESS YOU ARE REALLY THE KIND OF PROFESSIONAL WHO CAN PROVIDE VALUABLE FEEDBACK AND LIFT MY WORK'S LEVEL.

Thank you

10-25-2007, 10:33 PM	#4 (permalink)
raffish Junior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Appiano Gentile, Como, Italy Posts: 13	FINALLY ! thank you! Dear da1prophet, THANKS THANKS THANKS for you post, because It is exctly the kind of professional reply I was in search of. Maybe it is even too technical, as I don't even know the slang "-100" or "-150". It is common speach for who has been in professional betting for years, it is Arab for a Euro newbie making his home-brew stats on his own in Excel I'm used to see bets phrased in this form: Chicago Fire - Washington Dc United 1: 2.50 X: 3.10 2: 2.50 where "1" stands for betting that the team playing at hoem will win, "X" betting on draw and "2" betting on the team playing away win. For Example, 1: 2.50 means that if I bet 1$ on Chicago winning and they win, I will be paid back 2.50$ . I can show you how I calculated the threshold to begin making money. 1. I assume that every day I put a fixed "1 money unit" on every match on Betway website. 2. At the end of the day, my algorithm will have performed a X% accuracy overall in predicting the 1X2 results of all bets, and according to the wages of the bets it will have lead to a Y% earning on the invested money (wether positive or negative). 3. Thus I've plotted a graph with all such (X,Y) points, one for each day. You can see the graph here. 4. A simple linear regression on the point dispersion on the graph shows about 55% to be the threshold to begin making money in the long period, and 60% to allow making a 5% earning. Pls comment on my work. I promise I will publish an article on my website to explain in details my work. I'M REALLY LONGING FOR YOUR OPINION ON MY WORK, I GUESS YOU ARE REALLY THE KIND OF PROFESSIONAL WHO CAN PROVIDE VALUABLE FEEDBACK AND LIFT MY WORK'S LEVEL. Thank you Last edited by raffish; 10-25-2007 at 10:40 PM.