Hi everybody,
sorry if I post again about the same topic, but my previous post violated the forum's rules on spam and self-promotion and was thus removed.
I'll try to explain to you my business idea without any links nor self-promotion.
It will be a quite long post, but I think it will be worth for you too.
What I mean with this post is to
present to you my idea and
receive your feedback on it. What do you think of it?
My idea is to generate not passive, but very-little-active income having a method to automatically guess sport bets on websites without any sport knowledge nor reasing.
Concretely, I wanted to exploit the Machine Learning skills I learnt during my master thesis at university to
create an algorithm guessing bets for me.
I concentrated on football bets with three possible outcomes (1 - draw - 2) on my favourite betting website.
What I did was to begin collecting daily all bets and related quotes and results (outcomes). This was the trickiest part as it required lots of time in the beginning, but I progressively automated the whole thing with macros which format and prepare data for me after raw copy-and-paste from the website, removing duplicate bets and so on.
What I actually do today is only to take a copy and paste of all bets on the site like 4-5 times per day while I'm at work. Then before going to bed I manually fill in the results of the day (5-20 min. work).
Then, once a week I update the decision tree which makes my predictions.
The interesting thing is that
the prediction accuracy of my algorithm is linearly increasing in the number of matches filed in my database. Up to 7th October 2007, it has been
trained on 4.974 football matches worldwide and
proved able to guess 52,85% of their 1X2 results.
I’m very proud of this result because while being a betting aid for me and my website readers, it is itself a bet for me at the same time, as I bet on my skills in applying to this particular field the Machine Learing skills I have learnt at University.
What's more, I calculated that
60% accuracy is the threshold to begin having very interesting economic results. The goal I have is to achieve a prediction accuracy allowing me to earn DAILY something like 1% of the invested amount in bets.
For example, I want to achieve something like that: everyday I will spend a fixed 10.000$ on all bets on my favourite website, without knowing nothing on the matches I bet on, and be sure that in the long run I will always collect back 10.100 $ at the end of the day .
Also even only a 1.000 $ initial capital, making me earn 10$ per day in a brainless way could be good.
If 1% daily seems nothing to you, please consider if you wouldn't be happy to have your stock options behaving the same way ..
It took me a while to write all this .. please do not consider it spam, do not remove it and comment it instead
I'm really longing for your feedback on my idea !