Personal Development for Smart People Forums - View Single Post - Forex is too risky, so why you still doing trading.

lycan · 12-15-2011, 12:06 PM

Forex trading is not hard. Forex trading is not risky. Forex trading is not profitable and consistent enough for you to rely on it as your main source of income/capital appreciation if your working capital is only 50k, unless you live very modestly. You can make a lot of money trading forex but you simply cannot predict when the money will come. That is a rule of nature. People who think they can are gamblers relying on luck, they are not traders. You might hit a lucky streak at the start of your trading or you might take a year (or more) to average your trades into profit. That is what traders get paid to do, take the risk of losses. More specifically they get paid to average the risk of losses in a rational manner. Traders are like insurance companies, in a sense. As a rule you shouldn't take more than 1% of your capital as income. You can grow your funds faster than that, meaning that 1% will become larger as time goes on, but you shouldn't expect reliable income.

Now, yes, there are some more sophisticated traders that can do better than others by doing more indepth thinking/analysis (by working harder). And there are also some traders who think they are sophisticated and get in their own way. The key is to remember that traders are like insurance companies. If you can make a more accurate analysis of risk, you can trade in a more rational and therefore more profitable (in the long run) manner. Assuming you are actually right. And you are probably not. A basic analysis is sufficient and usually better than overthinking it.

So no, forex trading is not hard. And it is not "risky". But trading, all trading, is inherently risk management. If you are not a good risk manager, doesn't matter what kind of trading you do, you'll fail. In a sense, trading (forex included) is a form of gambling where you have the chance to be "The House"... but not the guarantee.

I could be biased because finances were my obsession so to me it doesn't feel hard, it feels natural. To someone that has not spent the time I spent, in the way I spent it, it may feel overwhelmingly hard.

12-15-2011, 12:06 PM	#11 (permalink)
lycan Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 626	Forex trading is not hard. Forex trading is not risky. Forex trading is not profitable and consistent enough for you to rely on it as your main source of income/capital appreciation if your working capital is only 50k, unless you live very modestly. You can make a lot of money trading forex but you simply cannot predict when the money will come. That is a rule of nature. People who think they can are gamblers relying on luck, they are not traders. You might hit a lucky streak at the start of your trading or you might take a year (or more) to average your trades into profit. That is what traders get paid to do, take the risk of losses. More specifically they get paid to average the risk of losses in a rational manner. Traders are like insurance companies, in a sense. As a rule you shouldn't take more than 1% of your capital as income. You can grow your funds faster than that, meaning that 1% will become larger as time goes on, but you shouldn't expect reliable income. Now, yes, there are some more sophisticated traders that can do better than others by doing more indepth thinking/analysis (by working harder). And there are also some traders who think they are sophisticated and get in their own way. The key is to remember that traders are like insurance companies. If you can make a more accurate analysis of risk, you can trade in a more rational and therefore more profitable (in the long run) manner. Assuming you are actually right. And you are probably not. A basic analysis is sufficient and usually better than overthinking it. So no, forex trading is not hard. And it is not "risky". But trading, all trading, is inherently risk management. If you are not a good risk manager, doesn't matter what kind of trading you do, you'll fail. In a sense, trading (forex included) is a form of gambling where you have the chance to be "The House"... but not the guarantee. I could be biased because finances were my obsession so to me it doesn't feel hard, it feels natural. To someone that has not spent the time I spent, in the way I spent it, it may feel overwhelmingly hard. Last edited by lycan; 12-15-2011 at 12:27 PM.