Originally Posted by Spinoza
I disagree, this is very different from those three. They were all relatively new announcements for their candidacy that gave them a bump and they all had some event that helped garner them some media attention that caused the rise as well. By the way I don't think any of them actually lead except perhaps Perry. Newt Gingrich announced his candidacy months ago and as far as I can tell there was no caucus victory or some other event that corresponded with this rise. The only event is the aformentioned Herman Cane dropping out of the race.
Newt has been wallowing in single digit numbers for months and I don't understand how all the conservatives decided he was their guy considering months before most of them were eyeing him dubiously because he denounced Paul Ryan's Medicare reform as 'right-wing social engineering.
Well, we'll have to see. As far as poll numbers go, Gingrich is already falling off. His 9 percentage point lead in Iowa has decreased to 1 percent in the newest Public Policy poll. He's now in a statistical dead-heat for first place with Ron Paul, at 22% compared to Paul's 21%.
My guess is that as other candidates continue to air ads revealing Newt's glaring inconsistencies and failures as a conservative, that his support will only continue to decline. If you look at the polls, it is only the older voters that support Gingrich, and my guess is it's because they don't hear all the bad stuff about him going around on the internet. But once there's enough TV coverage of his ethical wrongdoings and inconsistent positions, many of those older supporters will jump ship.